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    Saturday, February 18, 2017

    Trump Must Be Impeached Simply To Save The Western World

    The reports and rumors swirling around Trump's foreign and national security policies today are truly frightening. And the stories are not just related to Trump's ties with Putin and the Russians but a total unraveling of what we all have known as the Western Alliance.

    First, the Deputy National Security Adviser under President Obama, Colin Kahl put out a frightening tweet storm concerning Trump's foreign policy and the National Security Council (NSC). Already, Michael Flynn has been forced to resign as Trump's National Security Adviser (NSA) over his connections and contacts with Russia. Robert Harward and David Petraeus have both turned down the job to replace him, primarily because they were denied the authority to build their own teams in the NSC. One principal objection apparently for both was the insistence from the White House that K.T. McFarland would remain as deputy NSA. More important was the fact that Bannon would still not only remain on the NSC but also clearly be running parallel foreign policy analysis out of the White House.

    Kahl reports that dysfunction of the NSC is perfectly fine for the White House, especially Steve Bannon who it seems is the one actually running foreign policy. According to Kahl, Bannon's Strategic Initiatives Group is freezing out the State Department, Department of Defense, and the NSC and his group is the one that is really determining foreign policy initiatives, primarily focusing on some sort of deal with Russia. Kahl continues, "Idea of bargain would be to give Kremlin major concessions on NATO, Ukraine, etc. for cooperation on ISIS & maybe Iran & China too." Kahl goes on to point out that Russia has very little ability to constrain China and is highly unlikely to give up their long relationship with Iran. Kahl suggests two other rationales for a "grand bargain" with Russia, both highly disturbing. First is an "alignment of interests" that would weaken NATO and increase the chances for the breakup of the EU, goals that both Trump and Bannon have espoused. The other option is a "quid pro quo" for Russian assistance in getting Trump elected.

    The reason the GOP Russia hawks allowed Mattis and Tillerson to be confirmed is that they were seen as relatively sane guys who would be an ameliorating influence on Trump and Bannon. Instead, they are both being entirely frozen out of any decision-making process. Mattis was not informed about the Muslim ban until it was announced. The State Department was frozen out of the meeting with Netanyahu, as the representative that Tillerson had sent from State because he himself was on his way to Germany was denied access to the meeting he had been scheduled to attend, and Tillerson only heard about Trump's abandonment of the two-state solution from reports about Trump's press conference. According to Politico, "At the White House, there was little thought about notifying the nation's top diplomat because, as one senior staffer put it, 'everyone knows Jared [Kushner] is running point on the Israel stuff'". Essentially Mattis and Tillerson have spent virtually their entire time on the job travelling around the world tryin to reassure our nervous allies.

    But it's becoming clear that our allies understand where the power lies in the Trump administration, and it's not with the US team that was sent to Munich to reassure the Europeans. They understand the power lies with Trump, Bannon, and Kushner. Wolfgang Ischer, a long-time German supporter of the US and NATO, said today that if Trump continues to "advocate EU member countries to follow the Brexit example...it would amount to a kind of non-military declaration of war. It would mean conflict between Europe and the US". And this is after Pence, Mattis, Tillerson, and McCain's messages of reassurance. At that same conference in Munich, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called for a "just world order – if you want you can call it a post-West world order”. This statement by Lavrov comes after a closed door meeting with Tillerson where neither side issued a statement afterward. I have a feeling that the Europeans believe that Lavrov's vision is far closer to Trump's and Bannon's than anything they heard from Pence, Mattis, Tillerson, or McCain.

    And it's not just Europe that is worried. I turned on MSNBC about an hour ago and saw a segment on the strain in Australian-US relations that has grown with the failure of TPP and ascendancy of Trump, especially his bizarre phone call with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. The premise of the story was that these actions were pushing Australia into warmer relations with China. In addition, it is no coincidence that the EU finalized its trade deal with Canada shortly after Trump's inauguration.

    Meanwhile, the disarray in the bureaucracy continues and, in many ways, it is part of a strategy of the Trump administration. There are hundreds of sub-cabinet positions that require Senate confirmation that Trump has not even provided a name for. In addition, despite his promises to give Tillerson and Mattis control over who they hire, it appears that is not the case. Appointments have either been made directly from the White House or the White House has vetoed appointments Tillerson and Mattis have made. After two withdrawals for consideration of NSA, there are now reports that Trump is allowing current deputy NSA KT McFarland to suggest her choice. She is apparently recommending John Bolton, someone who is perhaps even crazier that Flynn was. In addition, an NSC aide has been fired after he attending a conference where he blasted the dysfunction in the NSC and the Trump White House, complaining the NSC has no access to the President. The nominee for the Secretary of the Army, Vincent Viola, previously withdrew his nomination and today there are reports that the Secretary of the Navy, Philip Bilden, is now withdrawing his nomination. Barry McCaffrey was on MSNBC saying that he would not be surprised to see Dan Coats withdraw his name for consideration as Director of National Intelligence. Even today, there is still no firm date for starting hearings for Coats which certainly prompts speculation.

    We are under one month in to this new administration and it already looks like the rats are leaving the sinking ship. The problem for the country is that this bureaucratic dysfunction allows the White House and especially Bannon to consolidate even more power over intelligence and foreign policy. And Bannon is someone who has repeatedly said that we are destined for war with China and Iran and we might as well start those wars now while we still have an enormous military advantage. Our allies are losing faith in our government and already looking for other alternatives other than the US for leadership and support. The feeling in many corners of the world is that order that has existed for the past 70 years is increasingly fragile and liable to be completely broken by Trump. That would spell disaster for many of our allies, especially those in Eastern Europe and even more especially for those in the Baltic states. And it will create a wasteful and dangerous arms race in Europe and elsewhere.

    Trump and his administration present the most profound danger to the Western Alliance in decades. If they follow through on some of their rumored policies, it will create global chaos and thousands, if not millions, of lives will probably be lost around the globe. Do you honestly think that allowing the Baltics to fall back under Russian influence will not create a revolt that will be quelled militarily. Do you honestly think that putting troops in Syria will not end in a quagmire or inspire even more terrorist attacks? Do you honestly think the breakup of the EU will not end up in violence and, perhaps in some distant future, war on the European continent. Perhaps I am overstating things, but they are all within the realm of possibility. We are in dangerous times.

    I find it hard to believe I am saying this, but I am increasingly feeling that Trump must be impeached for the sake of the world. Yes, Pence will be a disaster. The GOP in Congress will get their massive tax cuts. We will lose our healthcare. Voting rights will be further restricted. Abortion will also be severely limited or, more likely, outlawed entirely. The environment will be pillaged. But these are simply problems for America. Democrats and the people can at least fight and delay these moves and hope to regain power and rebuild in the future. Trump, on the other, is a threat not only to our country but also to the rest of the world. Because of the power of the presidency and the lack of Congressional and judicial checks on that power when it comes to foreign policy, it will be impossible to stop Trump from destroying the Western Alliance and reaching a "grand bargain" with Russia and assist in subverting the EU. In fact, we are unlikely to know it will happen until it occurs. For the sake of the safety and security of the rest of the world, America must suffer and Trump and Bannon must go.




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