It would have been nice if we could have hit the ground running at some point after the election so that the DNC would be in place and able to capitalize on the enormous protest and activism triggered by the inauguration of Donald Trump. Instead, as usual, we have been subjected to a brutal internecine war that supposedly pits Keith Ellison against Tom Perez but are seen as proxies for Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. That war has to end immediately if Democrats really want to maximize their chances in 2018. The agonizing decision will finally be made next week but already special elections that Democrats could win and need to win are under way.
I would prefer to see Perez become DNC chair if only because Democrats need every House member we have and Ellison has promised to leave his seat in order to devote his full attention to the DNC. Do we really need to put resources into defending that seat when Ellison leaves - you can be sure that the GOP will flood that race with money purely to make a point. What I hope doesn't happen is that, whoever is selected, it will just continue the Bernie-Hillary feud within the party.
Meanwhile, important races are already underway. In Minnesota, a special election there for a seat in the state House was won by the Republican yesterday. Trump received around 60% in this district but the DFL candidate put up a decent fight, winning 47% of the vote. The turnout was, as usual in special elections, low. In Delaware, a special election for the state Senate holds control of that body in the balance. The seat is very competitive but is being vacated by a Democrat who became Lieutenant Governor. The state Senate in Connecticut is similarly up for grabs where there are two special elections scheduled. One district is solidly Republican and one Democratic so, if the past holds, the Senate will not change hands. Later on this year, the state Senate in Washington will offer an opportunity for Democrats to flip that chamber as there will be three special elections and Democrats should be favored or competitive in two of them.
On the national level, there will be a special election in Georgia to fill Tom Price's House seat on April 18 with a runoff on June 20, if necessary. Hillary Clinton lost this district by just 1%, while Price romped by 23%. This seems incredible when his confirmation hearings showed that Price was clearly violating the STOCK Act and enriching himself while in office. Where was the Democratic opposition research on this? Hopefully, Democrats will unify around a former John Lewis staffer Jon Ossoff while Republicans remain fragmented. There are currently nine Republicans, five Democrats, and one independent currently qualified for the ballot with more expected. The Daily Kos community has already raised over $500,000 for Ossoff. It would be nice if the DNC could also focus its support. This is the most important election Democrats will face this year. If Democrats could pick up a win in this election, it would truly be a warning shot to the GOP in Congress and their prospects in 2018. Another, longer shot, for a House pickup could be the election to replace Ryan Zinke for the at-large seat in Montana. Other elections for seats in California, Kansas, and South Carolina are not likely to change hands.
Later this fall, there are two important gubernatorial election, one in Virginia and one in New Jersey. In New Jersey, the departing Republican Chris Christie is spectacularly unpopular and there are three well known Democrats already in the running, two established legislators and a wealthy former ambassador to Germany. The Republicans are waiting to see if the Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno is going to run although three state legislators have already announced. This should be a great chance for Democrats to flip this state. In Virginia, Democrat Terry McAuliffe is term limited and the battle to replace will be fierce. Presumptive Democratic nominee Ralph Northam is being challenged by the progressive former congressman Tom Perriello. Let's pray that battle does not ending up splitting the party. On the GOP side, Ed Gillespie looks to be the front-runner among four announced candidates so far. Again, this would be an important hold for Democrats.
Howard Dean served as DNC chair for four years that ended in 2009. During that time, Dean developed and promoted the 50 state strategy. That strategy focused on building the party structure and recruitment at every level in all 50 states, even those that were hopelessly Republican. Under Dean, the Democrats made remarkable inroads in some of the most unlikely places. A Governing.com piece detailed Democratic successes in the 20 reddest states under Dean:
- State House seats: Net gain of 39 seats, a 2 percent increase of all seats in the states analyzed
- State Senate seats: Net loss of two seats
- Governorships: Net loss of one
- Attorney generalships: Net gain of one (elected seats only)
- U.S. House seats: Net gain of three seats
- U.S. Senate seats: Net gain of one seat
- Presidential performance: In 15 of the 20 states, the Democratic nominee saw an increase in vote share between 2004 and 2008. In three other states, the vote share remained constant. It dropped in only two states
Now let's look at Democratic results in those same 20 red state in the four years after Dean's departure in 2009:
- State House seats: Net loss of 249 seats, a decrease of 13 percent of the existing seats in those states
- State Senate seats: Net loss of 84 seats, a decrease of 12 percent
- Governorships: A decrease by half, from eight governors to four
- Attorney generalships: A drop by two-thirds in elected AGs, from nine to three
- U.S. House seats: A 40 percent drop, from 44 seats to 26
- U.S. Senate seats: A drop from 11 seats to 8. (It could drop further by 2014: Of those eight remaining seats, three senators are retiring and another three face tough reelection contests.)
- Presidential performance: Only two of the 20 states (Alaska and Mississippi) saw higher support for Obama in 2012 than in 2008. In most of the 20 solidly red states, Obama's 2012 vote fell back roughly to John Kerry's level from 2004.
The numbers are devastating. Now, it has to be said that Democrats rode a wave in 2006 and had Obama in 2008. But the damage at the state level is hard to explain solely by those national trends. And it only got worse in the four years since then. Dean was broadly supported by the state party chairs who benefited from the resources that Dean and the DNC provided. He was opposed by those elements in the DNC who were simply focused on national elections. It certainly looks like it's time for Democrats to bring back at least parts of Dean's fifty state strategy.
Brooklynbadboy at Daily Kos had a really prescient piece the other day about how the Democrats need to move forward and restore its geographic majority. Rather than obsessively focusing on the disenchanted white working class in the upper Midwest, he points to five fast-growing states, Arizona, Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, as the real future for the Democratic party. The reason for focusing on these states is that they are within reasonable reach but more importantly they are states whose population is growing, meaning they will be adding House seats in the coming years. On the other hand, the populations in the states in the upper Midwest are actually shrinking and the number of House seats will correspondingly shrink as well. He believes that Democrats are seriously underperforming, especially at the local level, in areas of these states purely through lack of effort and organization. He points to Gwinnett County in Georgia "where there is absolutely no excuse for Democrats to have ZERO seats on the Board of Commissioners. The County is only 53% white, trending down. Hillary Clinton won the county, the first Democrat to do so since favorite son Jimmy Carter. It is affluent, suburban, diverse. All five Commissioners are white ultra conservative Republicans. Ridiculous. That's just neglect. Especially considering the county has 18 Georgia House seats and 7 Georgia Senate seats. Not to mention nutcase Congressmen Woodall and Hice. Make Gwinnett a blue County and suddenly Georgia is a true swing state." I suggest you read his whole piece as it makes enormous sense and illustrates the failure of the Democratic party establishment. That does not mean we abandon the Midwest at all. This is a 50 state strategy after all. But throwing some additional resources into these states only makes sense.
Flipping these states will not happen in 2018. But they may well be critical, especially at the state level, for the 2020 election and the redistricting that will come after the 2020 census. It is time for the DNC to focus once again on supporting the state and local parties in a meaningful way. And it is up to Democrats all over the country to provide the resources our candidates need. Let's hope the DNC can get its act together whoever becomes its chairman next week. The future of the party will depend on it.
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