I've Got Good News And Bad News

I've got good news and I've got bad news. Which do you want to hear first? Well, I always want to hear the bad news first. So here goes.

First, Martin Longman over at Washington Monthly makes the case that resistance is, in the end futile. According to Longman, " I don’t think it’s really possible to rattle the Republican majorities because they are too ensconced in power to have a need to worry about accountability. Maybe some congresspeople are avoiding town halls that are guaranteed to do them more harm than good, but that doesn’t mean that more than a handful of them are actually more worried about getting beaten by Democrats than by primary challengers from their right." In fact, the best thing the resistance has going for it is the basic incompetence and disorganization of the Trump administration, with a little help from Democratic obstruction in the Senate. A more prepared and normal administration were already be pushing through major pieces of legislation. But Longman sees this as purely temporary, saying, "They will start to figure these things out. They’ll get their people in place. And they’ll begin to really hammer and disempower their political enemies."

When you look at what happened at the Dakota Access Pipeline or how Trump's staggeringly poor nominees get confirmed on party line votes, it is hard not to agree with Longman's point. But rebuilding the Democratic party on a local level takes the kind of resistance and engagement we have recently seen. It's just that the rebuilding process will take years and Trump and the GOP Congress can do their worst now.

Then, today, a Washington Post opinion piece by Greg Sargent makes a similar point, arguing that Trump will cave to the GOP Congress and pass wide-ranging cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid for future recipients under the guise of "saving" those programs, using virtually the same language to first destroy the ACA. In addition, the GOP Congress will get the massive tax cuts it so desires for their rich and corporate overlords.

It's all pretty depressing. On the other hand, the good news is these guys could be entirely wrong. Last night, I went to a town hall put on by the Representative Jim Himes. And he was actually pretty sanguine about the prospect that Republicans themselves will not be able to agree on a way forward. He did not think that the ACA would be repealed or even replaced with the usual bogus GOP plan that would cover less people and offer junk policies. He did not think they would end up touching Social Security and Medicare. He was more concerned about their efforts to turn Medicaid into a block grant. And he believed the massive resistance the GOP Senators and Representatives were seeing this week would make it even more difficult for them to attack these plans. He even believed that Republican infighting might possibly sink their push for tax reform. I left the meeting feeling that perhaps we could stem the tide.

Interestingly, in a move of ultimate hypocrisy, the Trump administration and the GOP in Congress have asked a court to delay a lawsuit that would have eliminated the subsidies paid to health insurance companies in order to help them offset the costs associated with low income enrollees. Without those subsidies, insurance companies will probably leave the exchanges in droves. The case was originally brought by House Republicans back in 2014 and won the initial round but the Obama administration appealed that ruling. Now that Republicans are in full control and responsible for health care for over 20 million people, they are actually backing away from their own suit. If the GOP was really interested in seeing Obamacare collapse, they would have dropped this appeal and destroyed the exchange insurance market for 2018.

And, today, I see that Senator Murkowski of Alaska has said she would vote against repealing the Medicaid expansion. Incredibly, Governor Brownback, who has refused Medicaid expansion for his home state of Kansas, told CPAC that the GOP needs to find a way "for people to stay on the Medicaid expansion." Former Speaker John Boehner told a health conference today that not only would Republicans not be able repeal and replace Obamacare but that the number of people covered by Medicaid would probably not be reduced either. Of course, none of what those three say about Medicaid would stop them from agreeing to block grant the program.

On the tax front, Steve Mnuchin said today he would hope to have major tax reform passed by August. But, importantly, he did not indicate that the White House was anywhere near a plan that they would propose and seemed to indicate the bill would really be crafted in Congress. If Himes is correct, that makes its passage by August less likely.

Since I'm a cynical optimist at heart, I prefer to ignore Sargent and Longman on this one and put my hope in what Himes has to say. It is clear that the GOP is now focused on turning Medicaid into a block grant and our efforts at resistance need to focus accordingly. In addition, Democrats need to continue to slow-walk everything that happens in the Senate. To use a sports analogy, we need to run out the clock until halftime, which is 2018, so that we can regroup. There will be plenty of battles ahead but relentless resistance is our only option.