Flynn Is Out; Are Priebus, Spicer Next?

It is hard to believe that we are less than one month in to the administration of that vaunted business executive Donald Trump and we are already discussing what senior Presidential advisor has lost or will imminently lose their job.

We have already documented the problems that National Security Adviser Michael Flynn was facing. Flynn has clearly lied to the public about discussing sanctions with the Russian ambassador in a call in late December while the country was still nominally run by the Obama administration. Worse, Flynn repeated his lie to Mike Pence who then repeated the lie to the press and the public. Democrats have called for an investigation and the suspension of Flynn's security clearance. Nancy Pelosi demanded he be fired. According to the Washington Post, Sally Yates, the acting Attorney General until Trump fired her for not defending his Muslim ban, apparently warned the White House that Flynn had lied and was therefore subject to blackmail by the Russians. Obama's Director of National Intelligence and his CIA director backed up Yates in her warning to the White House. This, of course, means Trump and his team have been aware of Flynn's lies for weeks and did absolutely nothing to resolve it.

Cynical minds would say that seems "interesting" and enhances the theory that Flynn was not acting on his own but with the authority of either Trump or a senior member of Trump's team. In addition, a Republican member of the House from a swing district came out and said, "If in fact he [Flynn] purposely misled the President, he should step down immediately." But that is now the real question. Did he mislead Trump or was Trump directing Flynn? We are back to "what did the President know and when did he know it?'. There were conflicting signals coming out of the White House, with some advisers including KellyAnne Conway saying Trump still has full confidence in Flynn while other reports said that replacements were already being interviewed.

Then, late last night, Flynn abruptly resigned, saying "I inadvertently briefed the Vice President Elect and others with incomplete information regarding my phone calls with the Russian Ambassador." Flynn ended his resignation letter by moving back into campaign mode with, "this team [Trump and Pence] will go down in history as one of the greatest presidencies in US history, and I firmly believe the American people will be well served as they all work together to help Make America Great Again". Nothing like having to kiss the ring before you get the axe.

Flynn's resignation will not be the end of this story about Trump's Russian connections. Flynn has clearly had contacts with the Russians before and after the election and is now being investigated for receiving actual payments from the Russians in 2015. And the fact that Trump and his team knew about Flynn's lies for weeks will leave the Watergate question hanging out there for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, Trump confidante Chris Ruddy has taken aim at Reince Priebus, blistering him in an interview on CNN this weekend. Said Ruddy, "The White House is showing not the amount of order that we need to see. I think there’s a lot of weakness coming out of the chief of staff. I think Reince Priebus, good guy, well-intentioned ― but he clearly doesn’t know how the federal agencies work. He doesn’t have a really good system. He doesn’t know how the communications flow". Interestingly, Chris Christie is scheduled to have lunch with Trump today. Christie, as you might remember, was originally the head of Trump's transition team and was at least mentioned as a possible chief of staff, that is until both the prosecution and the defense in the Bridgegate trial stipulated that Christie flat out lied about his role in that scandal.

Finally, it has also been reported that Trump has been less than happy with his press secretary, Sean Spicer. Spicer is in theory holding down two jobs, press secretary and communications director. It has been reported that the Trump administration is looking to finally hire a communications director to lighten Spicer's load. That is probably made a bit more complicated by the presence of KellyAnne Conway who basically fills that role in deed, but seems to have a undefined job and relationship to Trump. On the other hand, it may be that Trump is actually searching for a replacement for Spicer and using the communications director opening as a cover. In addition, Trump's unhappiness with Spicer also reflects badly on Priebus. According to a source, "Priebus vouched for Spicer and against Trump's instincts," and Trump "regrets it every day and blames Priebus."

Three weeks into the new administration and already one senior adviser is toast and two other senior positions are apparently under the gun. So far, the Trump administration seems to be constant chaos. This is just more than growing pains for a new administration. It is a reflection of Trump's erratic personality and management style. Even if all three of these officials are replaced with people Trump handpicks, it is hard to see that this will not be a continual issue going forward. Whenever things turn south for Trump, it will be time for heads to roll and to find fall guys for the failure. It's the way Trump has worked in the past and the way he will work in the future.

Flynn's resignation is yet another indication of the dysfunction and incompetence in the Trump administration. Firing Priebus and/or Spicer at this point will damage the administration's credibility even further in the short term. And, as I said, there is no guarantee that Trump will be happy with whoever he gets to replace them. Trump is painfully well aware of his abysmal approval ratings and his enormous ego will require someone to publicly take the blame for that. Even though Flynn is gone, I wouldn't feel to secure if I was Priebus or Spicer.