Russia looks like it is stepping up the pressure on the Trump administration, exploiting not only their "relationship" with Trump but also the disarray within the administration. First, the Russians have deployed an intermediate range ballistic missile which looks to be in clear violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) agreement signed between Reagan and Gorbachev way back in 1987. In addition, other reports say that a Russian spy ship is currently located off the coast of Groton, Connecticut, the home of the US submarine fleet. This is the first time since 2015 that Russian ships have been patrolling the US coast since 2015. Meanwhile, the fighting in Ukraine continues to escalate driven, in part, by both sides impressions of the incoming Trump administration. And today, reports detailed Russian planes buzzing a US naval warship in the Black Sea.
So far, as far as I can determine, there has been no official reaction from any of the Trump principals to the Russian's important violation of the INF treaty. Trump, Tillerson, and Mattis have said nothing on the incident. (If I'm wrong on this, please let me know.) The only response has been from the State Department spokesman saying, "We do not comment on intelligence matters. We have made very clear our concerns about Russia’s violation, the risks it poses to European and Asian security, and our strong interest in returning Russia to compliance with the treaty." As an aside, those were the words of the acting spokesman as the Trump administration has yet to properly fill the spot, yet another indication of the administration's incompetence and disarray. More importantly, a weak and un-unified response from the US and its Asian and European allies that allows the Russians to deploy these missiles will only result in a missile buildup in Europe and in China. Considering Europe's belief that Trump's commitment to NATO is wavering, the impetus for that escalation will be strong.
The other actions such as buzzing US ships and patrolling the US coast are normal maneuvers designed to test or signal the US. And that signal is clearly that Russia is flexing its muscle and seeing what kind of response it will get.
And once again, another foreign government is testing the new President and his administration. And once again, the response is weak and muddled and, in this case, almost nonexistent.
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