Trump Is Weak And Democrats Need To Say So

I'd like to call attention to a piece by John Stoehr over at the Washington Monthly that focuses of the importance for Democrats in characterizing Trump as weak. This is kind of the flip side of a theme that Josh Marshall had about Trump during the campaign which said that a large part of Trump's popularity was driven by his mastery of "dominance politics". The whole point of viciously and falsely attacking the media is primarily to show that he is strong. The point of all the lies about his election win is driving home his strength to his core constituency. Stoehr makes this point directly when he says, "It is style’s mastery over substance. Which brings me back to character. That is something people can judge, because they trust their ability to size up the president. That trust, of course, is misplaced, because Trump is in fact a serial liar, but remember, most people, especially Trump supporters, don’t know enough about politics or care enough to know much about politics, so they don’t know he’s lying. What they can see is how he looks. And this is key."

But, as Stoehr goes on to say, Trump is actually weak and to essentially break the fever of Trump supporters requires having him constantly depicted as weak. Democrats need to focus on hammering home that message. And, in fact, there is plenty of fodder for that message because, right now, Trump is incredibly weak.

Anytime Trump can be forced to back down publicly from his lies, he will look weak. That was the beauty of the NBC reporter who confronted Trump on his lie about his electoral college win and forced Trump into full retreat on that point. The fact that he has already caved into China on the "one China" policy shows that Trump is weak. The fact that the courts made him, temporarily, retreat on his Muslim ban shows Trump is weak. The fact that one national security adviser has resigned and two others have turned down the job shows that Trump is weak. The fact that his nominees for Secretary of the Army and Secretary of Labor and now, possibly, Secretary of the Navy have withdrawn from consideration show that Trump is weak. The fact that he hasn't even put up names for hundreds of sub-cabinet level positions that require Senate confirmation shows that Trump is weak. The fact that his approval ratings are at historic lows for any president this early in his term shows that Trump is weak. The fact that, one month in to his presidency, Trump feels the need to go out and rally his base shows that Trump is weak. And we should hear that message every day from Democrats.

I keep on hearing some pundits say that Trump is a master retail politician who can always energize his base and that base is what led him, and will lead him, to electoral victory. The campaign rally in Florida yesterday was just another way for Trump to flex his political muscle. And, as I've written, it is a show of strength to bring out his base that is designed to keep the Republicans in Congress on board. But it is a show of strength born out of weakness, kind of like the old Soviet Union's May Day parades.

The punditocracy, having written Trump off so many times yet seen him survive and win, has come to believe that he can simply call out to his base and defy political gravity. He can't. Trump won an electoral college victory by running the table in every swing state by the slimmest of margins. Trump lost the popular vote by nearly three million and won only 46% of the vote. Any reasonable election analysis indicates that he and potentially the down-ballot Republicans could have suffered a massive loss without the efforts of the Russians, the media obsession with Hillary's emails that was largely driven by the expectation she would win, and the critical intervention of James Comey.  Trump is already incredibly unpopular but the intensity of that unpopularity is nearly unheard of, although he still has incredibly strong support among Republicans. But even that may only be so deep. MSNBC had reports over the last two days from areas in the Iowa where they went back and talked to Trump voters. For the most part, those voters still supported Trump but were basically saying "it's only been three weeks, give him some time". That is hardly full-throated support for what he has done.

Campaigning is one thing and governing is entirely another, as we are clearly seeing. Part of Trump's advantage in the last election is that Hillary had to defend her record in government while Trump ran on the myth that he was a successful businessman. Trump supporters may love his Muslim ban and mass deportations and his constantly proclaiming "America First". But his rolling back regulations and negotiating with individual companies will not bring back coal jobs or manufacturing jobs. His 35% tariff will probably never happen and only increase consumer prices if it does go through. The Congressional GOP plans for massive tax cuts for the rich and taking away health insurance are not broadly popular. In two years and in four years, assuming Trump is still president and we have a democracy, he and the Republicans will be having to defend their record. And it will not be a good one. Trump came into office as a weak President and he is not getting any stronger. In fact, his penchant for authoritarianism is, in its own way, a sign of weakness, that he can not survive in a normal democratic process. Rather than overreacting to every Trump lie and provocation specifically, Democrats should be unified in saying Trump only lies and attacks because he is in such a weak position. If Democrats can feed the narrative of his weakness now, it will resonate even more as the years go by. And when his supporters finally see his weakness, he will have started to lose them.