Credible Libertarian Ticket Is Another Hurdle For Trump

The Libertarian Party gathered in Florida this weekend in order to choose its ticket for the presidential campaign.  As of now, the party is the only third party that looks to be on the ballot in all 50 states come November and the ticket it chose probably strengthens the party's bid even more. Gary Johnson, the former two-term governor of New Mexico, was chosen as the Presidential candidate. And William Weld, the former two-term governor of Massachusetts and Johnson's preferred choice as running mate, was selected for the Vice Presidential spot. Both men required a second ballot to become the nominee.  Johnson and Weld at least have the gravitas of having held elected office and are seasoned politicians and could have some impact on this election, especially if they manage to get into the debates in the fall. In addition, the Koch brothers have long supported the Libertarian Party which means that the ticket may have nearly unlimited financial resources.

Now, most credible third party candidacies like this one start out with high hopes but usually end up getting single digits when the election is actually held.  Most people just don't want to waste their vote on a sure loser and only register a protest vote when they know that their state is going to overwhelmingly vote for one of the two establishment parties.  But I do think Trump is the candidate that will be hurt the most by the emergence of this ticket. For those disaffected Republicans who abhor Trump's racist rhetoric, distrust his commitment to free trade, and disdain his lack of interest in reducing the size and scope of government, the Libertarians offer a refuge. Already, Mr. Johnson has assailed Trump for his position on immigration, explicitly calling it "racist - it's just racist!".

In the end, even in this year of high disaffection with both traditional party candidates, I don't expect the Libertarians to exceed 5% of the popular vote but the votes they do get in a few swing states could be decisive - we all should remember Ralph Nader in Florida in 2000. But anywhere close to 5% is still a huge number and is within reach with two serious, responsible politicians on the ticket and funding from the Koch brothers and other right wing groups not enamored with Trump. The electoral map for Trump is already quite difficult and it becomes even more so if some of the traditional Republican support gets siphoned off to this Johnson-Weld ticket.