Initial Thoughts On Impact Of Comey's Letter On The Election

As the initial impact of FBI Director James Comey's explosive and ill-considered email to Congress begins to fade and the reality of the situation comes into focus, we can begin to venture what kind of an effect this will have on the election. I do agree with Hillary that most voters have already factored the email issue into their decision, one way or another. For those that were never going to vote for Hillary anyway, this is just a confirmation of their biases. For those that will support Hillary, the fact that there is apparently no new information here will simply confirm their vote. For the handful of voters who claim that they haven't already made up their mind, this story will simply confirm what they were probably already going to do once they got into the voting booth anyway. So, as far as the presidential race goes, I really don't think this will change the dynamics of the race.  Trump is still massively behind and his path to victory in the electoral college is virtually non-existent. Even a swing of one or two points will not change anything and the impact on the result of the presidential race will (hopefully) turn out to have been marginally effected by Comey's actions.

The damage in some of the incredibly tight down-ballot races, however, could be significant. GOP candidates can twist Comey's letter into an indictment of Hillary and help turn out their presently demoralized base. It also enhances their message of needing a Republican check on the potential lawlessness of a Clinton presidency and a Democratic Congress. The balance of power in the Senate hangs on a handful of incredibly tight races and the size of the significant Democratic gains in the House depends on how many Republicans who are disgusted by Trump will decide not to even vote. On the Rachel Maddow Show last night, Howard Dean expressed his belief that Comey's letter will have very little impact on the down-ballot races because those races have already become individualized, meaning that the focus is on the individual candidates rather than a generic partisan battle. In addition, Hillary's email issues have nothing to do with those down-ballot Democratic candidates.

I think we will be able to get a read on whether the Clinton campaign's internal polling sees the race moving against them pretty soon. Of course, they need to press Comey to provide further clarification. But if that becomes a drumbeat and dominates their campaign statements, then I think you can surmise that they believe the issue is really hurting them. If Hillary continues with her normal campaign speeches and the campaign presses Comey with a single statement every day, then it is probable that Comey's letter is not hurting them.

On Maddow's show, she referenced the indictment of Cap Weinberger which came out four days before the 1992 election. In that indictment, there was a memo that seemed to indicate that George H. W. Bush was far more intimately involved in the details of the Iran-Contra affair than he had otherwise indicated. Bush and his supporters blamed the Independent Counsel, Lawrence Walsh, for slowing his growing momentum and costing him the election. One count of that indictment was subsequently thrown out because the statute of limitations on the particular crime had expired, but four others stood. But to use this as an example or parallel for what Comey has done it to totally ignore the details. As opposed to Comey who is technically merely an investigator, Walsh was a prosecutor who had secured an indictment. Additionally, Walsh at least presented the evidence he had to the public so that they could make their own informed decisions. Comey, so far, has refused to do so.

Comey's inappropriate letter has and will dominate the news for the next few days. It remains to be seen if it will effect the outcome of the elections.