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    Tuesday, October 11, 2016

    Hillary Consolidates A Substantial Lead

    The latest poll averages show Hillary Clinton with nearly a 10-point lead nationally over Donald Trump:


    While Trump's support has plummeted, Clinton seems to be consolidating hers. If you look at some of the individual polls where Gary Johnson and Jill Klein are still part of the polling choice, you will see that Johnson is still carrying significant support, somewhere between 5 and 10 percent. I suspect that, as time goes on, the majority of that Johnson support is coming from people, especially Republicans, who would never, ever vote for Hillary but just can't stomach Trump. The Libertarian party is their only refuge. I would also guess that part of Hillary's rise is not only independents and disaffected moderate Republicans coming over to her side but also a number of liberal Johnson supporters finally rallying behind her. Johnson's gaffes on foreign policy and his position on taxes and investment are really not what Bernie supporters are looking for and they have come home to Hillary. And poll numbers like this must make down-ballot Republicans fear for their jobs, but they are stuck between the rock of their base and the hard place of still nominally supporting Trump.

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