Does Theresa May Really Have A Plan?

It sometimes seems as though Theresa May is more concerned about an internal challenge for within her own Conservative party than actually finding the best way for Britain to navigate its disastrous exit from the European Union. At the recent Conservative Party Congress, May clearly stated her negotiating position would be to demand a "hard" Brexit, allowing Britain to have a total break with the EU while still maintaining access to that common market. The remarks basically tipped the UK's hand in its negotiations with the EU and ignores the reality that it will be Europe dictating the terms of Britain's separation, not the other way around. But the speech probably solidified her credentials within a core of the Conservative party who are suspicious of May, who personally opposed Brexit, going soft on the details of the separation. For more moderate, business-oriented Conservatives, her position was probably not what they wanted to hear. But, having already declared her negotiating position, May insists that she will not ask Parliament to vote on Article 50, the step that will formally begin the negotiations for exit, saying that she can not conduct the negotiations with "running commentary" from Parliament. This use of the "royal prerogative" is currently being challenged in court and the results of that case could force a Parliamentary vote. That would open up a big can of worms for the government as there are many competing viewpoints within not only the Conservative party but Parliament as a whole over the best negotiating position for Britain to take. But, whether Parliament votes or not, Europe holds all the cards in the Brexit negotiations, a critical point that Conservatives either do not recognize or willfully ignores.

On the domestic front, May seems to think that running the country is similar to running a cabinet department. She recently told the NHS that it would be getting no new money in the next budget to be released later this fall. Rather, she advised, the agency should fill its 22 billion pound budget gap by making cuts similar to the ones she made when she ran the Home Office. Again, this somewhat defies reality. The Home Office can cut staff that would slow down the process for obtaining visas and immigrant status which would create additional inconvenience but nothing more. Closing a hospital or cutting medical staff, on the other hand, could have a life or death impact for some people. In addition, the demands for core NHS services are rising at around a 3% rate annually. That is certainly much different than any growing demands on the Home Office. It is hard to believe May can sustain this position, especially considering Brexit supporters (falsely) claimed that it would free up billions of pounds that could be used to support the NHS.

Finally, just to show how out of touch some members of the Conservative party really are, there is apparently a push to re-commission the royal yacht Britannia. So, as the financial community starts to move jobs to the continent in order to maintain access to the EU, the British pound sinks, business lives with indefinite uncertainty, and the NHS struggles with greater demand and a growing deficit, the Conservative party wants to spend money for a royal yacht because that will certainly revive the glory of the Empire. Yes, in the great scheme of things, the money for a royal yacht will be a drop in the bucket, but it certainly puts the Conservative party priorities right out front - the symbols of a time long passed are more important than the country's struggles today. And that pretty well defines the attitude of all those who supported Brexit.

As the columnist for the Financial Times says, "There’s no plan. Each panic-inducing remark gets toned down. May as well ask your cat."