Trump May Have Already Lost Republicans In Congress

We are less than two months into the Trump presidency and it looks like he may have already lost the Republican Congress. The buildup of the Russian connections, the evidence-free accusation that Obama wiretapped him, the collapse of Trumpcare under the weight of the horrendous CBO score, and now a budget that is full of attack ad fodder for Democrats may have finally stiffened the back of Republicans in Congress.

This was supposed to be the wonderful honeymoon period for Republicans where they would pass all those things they'd been promising forever and ride the wave of Trump's popularity. Instead, the actual process of governing, especially with an ignorant, erratic, and unengaged President, is only creating more and more bad press for the GOP and threatens to unravel their majority.

Yesterday, Chuck Grassley, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said that he will refuse to move ahead on any more confirmation votes until committee gets full briefed by the administration on the Russian investigation. It is clear that the FBI is stonewalling the committee as Grassley complained, "He [FBI Director Comey] was supposed to get back to us and we still haven't heard anything". On Tuesday, Judiciary Committee member Lindsey Graham threated to subpoena Comey if he did not appear willingly. The obvious assumption should be that Comey's silence is based on instructions from the DOJ, led by Jeff Sessions, who was rather unclear about where his recusal from the Russian investigation began and ended.

Whether this is an indication that Republicans have a basis for believing there is no "smoking gun" out there that implicates the Trump campaign in colluding with the Russians or simply a desire to get everything out in the open and try to move on, whatever that may bring, is also unclear. But it is a sign that the GOP is no longer interested in taking the heat for this investigation that is really Trump's own doing.

At the same time, the GOP is also not interested in defending Trump's accusation that Obama wiretapped him. Yesterday, House Intelligence Committee Chairman David Nunes said he doesn't believe "there was an actual tap of Trump Tower" and later suggested that Trump's tweets should not be taken literally. However, Nunes said that other kinds of surveillance of Trump or Trump Tower may have occurred and should be investigated. Nunes was one of the first to announce that Trump's claim should be investigated, so this is a significant back down. Meanwhile, Trump continues to push forward with that claim, taking Nunes' approach that he meant surveillance more broadly when he said "wiretap". And, just a moment ago, a bipartisan statement from the Senate Intelligence Committee says definitively there was no wiretap or surveillance on Trump Tower.

To my mind, Trump's continual pursuit of this accusation without producing evidence, which, as President, he could easily do, indicates that there is some intelligence out there that does show collusion between the Trump administration and Russia. But that intelligence probably came from targeting a Russian and conversations by a US citizen captured in that monitoring are not allowed to be presented as "evidence" without obtaining a warrant. In any case, it is another example of GOP members becoming less willing to be Trump's defenders.

Trumpcare, supposedly being shepherded through the House by Paul Ryan, has turned into a disaster with the revelation of the CBO score. Ryan's plan to rush this bill through the House before the CBO score has backfired badly. Now, in order to get this through the House, Ryan will have to appease the Freedom Caucus which is looking for something far closer to outright repeal. Moving the bill in that direction will alienate House moderates and make it impossible to get it through the Senate. As it comes more and more clear that the bill will never pass the Senate, it becomes less and less likely that House GOP members will vote for a bill that even Trump concedes will largely hurt the GOP base, especially when they know it will never become law.

Trump did the GOP no favors by holding two campaign rallies yesterday where he barely mentioned Trumpcare. Later, in a Fox interview, Trump said "I'm not signing anything" if the bill doesn't meet his standards and admitted that the bill in its present form will actually hurt many of the people who voted for him. That's not going to reassure GOP House members who will be required to take the first vote on this plan. It is becoming quite likely, if not probable, that this bill may never make it out of the House and will certainly never make it through the Senate in anything like its present form.

Today, the Trump administration released its budget proposal, again without any consultation with Congress and apparently based mostly on Trump's campaign promises and tweets. This budget is dead on arrival and has even managed to anger Republicans in Congress. It is a wet dream for Mick Mulvaney and Steve Bannon but it is just that, a dream. No member of Congress is going to vote to eliminate Meals on Wheels for the elderly. McCain and Graham will never vote for 30% cut in the State Department, even with the increased military budget. Trump is not going to get Joe Manchin to vote for a budget that eliminates the Appalachian Regional Commission. Who is going to vote for cutting the National Institutes of Health, which is responsible for cancer research and basic research for new pharmaceuticals? The budget even includes funding for the border wall that apparently we are going to pay for and Mexico is not. It cuts funding for Amtrak service and airline flights for rural areas. That should go down well in counties that rely on these services and voted for Trump. And there are probably a hundred more items I could point to that would create problems for the GOP in this budget.

As Kevin Drum notes, this is not a serious budget proposal but simply another campaign document meant to appeal to Trump's base. The problem is that is also full of campaign materials for Democrats. But an additional problem created by it not being a serious document is that it now puts all the responsibility on Republicans in Congress for coming up with a budget apparently on their own. That has proved difficult to do. Remember, last year, despite also having control of both the House and the Senate, Republicans were unable to even produce a budget. Paul Ryan could not even get one out of the House and over to the Senate. If the Trumpcare bill collapses, it is going to be even more difficult to bring the warring factions with the GOP together to come up with a budget.

Lastly, Trump's Muslim ban 2.0 was also struck down by a federal court yesterday. Again, this may make great PR that appeals to Trump's base, but it just weakens Trump even more.

Trump's erratic behavior, policy ignorance, and unwillingness to get his hands dirty in the details of governing have Republicans in Congress incredibly wary. They have no interest in taking the hard votes when they have no assurance that Trump himself will not only not give them cover but also might actually totally flip-flop on the issue if that seems the more popular position. With the divisions inside the Republican caucus already quite deep, an unengaged and erratic President will not make moving difficult legislation forward any easier.