Failing Up, Repubican Style

There is a talent that seems particular to only rich white men and that is the uncanny ability to fail up. Donald Trump is the classic example. A man who has gone through six bankruptcies is still somehow able to portray himself and be portrayed as a successful businessman and become President. Normally, the talent for failing up requires a significant amount of usually inherited money so that no failure is really threatening to the lifestyle they lead. Other times, especially in politics, it only requires extreme sycophancy and tribalism to move on to your next failure without missing a beat. In business, it usually means you have a powerful mentor within the firm or, at the executive level, friends who will protect you. There is a reason it is called the "old boys' club" and don't kid yourself that it has gone away.

Sam Brownback, the current governor of Kansas manages to prove this rule by failing, if not up, at least sideways despite being one of the epic failures of all time. Brownback's dream was to finally prove the he alone could bring Arthur Laffer's myth of conservative economic orthodoxy to life. With total Republican control of the Kansas legislature, Republican Brownback could finally put all the elements of supply side economics in place and the resulting boom would show the world just how it should be done.

In 2012, Brownback implemented Laffer's vision, with Laffer's and his sidekick Stephen Moore's aid and advice. The plan compromised massive tax cuts for business and high-income earners and Brownback promised the result would be a "shot of adrenaline into the heart of the Kansas economy." And indeed it was a shot to the heart of the Kansas economy, except it was more like a bullet than adrenaline. In the first year, revenues fell by nearly 25%, by over $700 million. The budget for other services like education and public works maintenance were squeezed and the state's bond rating was cut. But job growth remained sluggish and trailed the levels of similar states near Kansas. By 2014, there was even revolt within the GOP ranks but Brownback pleaded for patience, saying that the boom was just around the corner. He barely survived re-election that year but even that close call did not deter him, as he refused to raise taxes. By this time, the state was being hauled into court due to the underfunding of education driven by the fall in revenues. Last year, some school districts had to close school early due to lack of funds. Localities around Kansas are transitioning to dirt roads because their is not enough money for maintenance. And, of course, the poor and needy are suffering.

The numbers for Kansas since Brownback's plan went into effect are simply staggering, staggeringly bad. Tax receipts are still over 20% below where they were when it began, and this is with a generally improving economy. The rainy day fund to be dipped into when bad economic times hit has been depleted from over $700 million to just $40 million as Brownback and his allies continued to raid it to pay for essential services. They have also raided tax receipts originally destined for road maintenance and improvement. Brownback has continually been forced to cut the education budget and last year delayed a nearly $100 million payment to the state pension fund, forcing another downgrade in the state's bond rating.

But those are just the state's finances. I'm sure the job market is booming and incomes are up, just like Laffer predicted. Well, employment is up 2.6% since the plan went into effect. But that looks pretty pathetic when you realize that employment has risen 6.5% nationally. Personal income growth has fallen from 12th in the nation to 41st. GDP has risen 4.8% while nationally it is up nearly 12%. And the state's share of business creation has also declined compared to the rest of the nation.

Those are just the raw numbers. They don't take into account the untold suffering of the poor and needy, the destruction of public education, and the collapse of infrastructure investment, all of which will continue to haunt Kansas for years to come. And what is Brownback's response to all this. It is probably best summed up by Laffer's protégé, Stephen Moore, who has also been advising Brownback through this process. He says Brownback should continue with "full speed" on even more tax cuts. Considering that the original plan had already cut the tax rate to zero for all business owners and self-employed workers, the supposed "job creators", it is hard to see how much lower they could go.

Brownback is term-limited out in 2018, so he will be gone once and for all. But he's apparently not even waiting for a graceful exit from the governor's mansion. Reports are that Brownback has been offered and will accept a position in the Trump administration as our ambassador to the United Nations for food and agriculture. That position would mean that Brownback, poor guy, would have to relocate to Rome. Basically, anything to do with the United Nations is the equivalent of Siberia in the Trump administration. And it is an enormous comedown for a sitting governor. But when you've been failing as badly as Brownback, getting exiled to Rome may not be failing up but it sure is at least failing sideways. Meanwhile, Kansans will be left digging out the rubble he created and they admittedly abetted for years to come. That sounds like the usual outcome in the old boys' club.