Conundrum For Schumer, Democrats In April's Budget Battle

Donald Trump and the Republicans may want to move on to "tax reform", which will end up being the usual GOP unfunded tax cuts, but they will have one important hurdle to get over before they even get around to that. In late April, the continuing budget resolution that was put in place last fall will expire and that will provide Democrats with an opportunity to extort some concessions out of Republicans in order to avoid a government shutdown, as the GOP has done to Democrats over the last few years.

The continuing resolution is just another example of the failures of the Republican-controlled government to even provide the basics of governing. One of the primary responsibilities of Congress, if not THE primary responsibility, is to simply pass a budget to fund the government. Republicans have simply been unable to do that, simply relying on continuing resolutions that continue to fund the government at existing levels.

But continuing resolutions rely on 60 votes to pass in the Senate. In December of last year, when the GOP offered a continuing resolution to fund the government at 2016 levels until April of this year, Democrats flirted with the idea of not providing the votes to get to 60. Joe Manchin, in particular, along with Sherrod Brown, wanted to get a yearlong extension to the miners' insurance program instead of just through April as the continuing resolution provided. There were not even enough votes among Democrats to make that threat feasible but it did allow those two coal state Democratic Senators to highlight their support of miners. In the end, Democrats provided the votes to pass the continuing resolution and not shut down the government.

But that was in December when Democrats were still in shock over losing the election to Donald Trump and having to confront the fact that the GOP now controlled Congress and the White House. It was also a time when Senate Minority Leader Schumer was probing for ways to possibly work with Trump that Democrats could support, such as an infrastructure program. Things look a bit different these days. Democrats are coming off a huge victory with the defeat of Trumpcare, Trump has an abysmally low approval rating bouncing between the high 30s and low 40s, and the Republicans in Congress are in seeming disarray. In addition, Trump is further weakened by the expanding investigation into whether his campaign colluded with the Russians to damage Hillary Clinton. And the Democratic base is energized, not demoralized.

The recent history of government shutdowns has shown it to be an action that is always opposed by a strong majority of the American public. The Republican controlled Congress shut down the government in 1995 and 1996 while Democrat Bill Clinton was President. The GOP eventually caved in both instances and got blamed for the shutdown. The shutdown actually increased the strength of Clinton's support, leading to the ouster of the architect of that strategy, Newt Gingrich, as Speaker of the House. The strategy was employed again in 2013 when the Republican controlled House continued to send budgets to the Senate, controlled by the Democrats, that stripped out funding for the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Each time the Senate stripped out the language regarding the ACA and sent it back to the House. Once again, the prolonged shutdown got blamed on Republicans and they were eventually forced to back down, although it did not seem to hurt them in the 2014 elections less than a year later.

Like last December, Democrats will seek to receive some concessions from Republicans in order to keep the government funded through another continuing resolution. There is no way the GOP is going to have a budget in place in the next month so that will be the only mechanism for keeping the government running. The question is will the Democrats really be willing to shut the government down if they do not receive those concessions or will they cave like they did in December.

If Democrats do go ahead with that threat, it would be the first time, at least in the recent hyper-partisan era, that the government has shut down with one party controlling both Congress and the White House. That presents an interesting question on who would bear the brunt of the blame should that happen. The President has the bully pulpit and can make life difficult for Democrats but it is also possible that the public, ignorant of the arcane rules in the Senate, will just see this as another example of the Republicans not being able to govern even when they control Congress and the White House. The judgement of how the shutdown plays out with public opinion may be just as crucial, and potentially deadly, for Schumer as it was for Gingrich.

The other issue is what concessions should the Democrats realistically be demanding to get by agreeing to the continuing resolution. Should they throw the ball back in Trump's court on Obamacare by demanding tweaks to shore up the exchanges and cut premiums and deductibles, since he claims the ACA is imploding, or does that open up the danger of the GOP taking another crack at total repeal? Should they try to derail the moves on tax reform, meaning unfunded tax cuts, by getting Trump to agree on an infrastructure plan? Should they try to swap guarantees on some new discretionary spending in return for an increase in the military budget? Should they just play small ball and try to ask for specific measures to help red state Democratic Senators, like they did in December? Or should they just go along with the continuing resolution and hope the GOP continues to self-destruct on tax reform and the budget? Whatever position Democrats take, it comes with the risk that public opinion will turn against them and they will be forced to back down. Taking hardline issues on health care and infrastructure and then having to cave will make it harder to deal with both those issues if and when they do come up again and caving, after holding out for those core issues, will demoralize the base. It is an enormous conundrum for Democrats and Schumer and the decision could have a lasting impact that would effect the 2018 election.

I know I wouldn't want to be in Schumer's shoes having to make this decision. What do you think?

Update: Reader pasuburbdem1 over at DKos has come up with the best idea yet! In return for agreeing to the continuing resolution, Democrats should demand that Trump release his tax returns for the last ten years. Imagine Trump letting the government shut down because he refuses to do what every other presidential candidate, much less President, has done for the last 30 years. I think it's a brilliant idea!