Is GOP Punting On Repealing ACA With RyanCare Proposal

Considering the enormous opposition from virtually all quarters to the Ryancare plan, you really have to wonder what the GOP strategy is here. Conservative Republicans, the Freedom Caucus, the Heritage Foundation, FreedomWorks, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Mike Lee and other right-wing groups are all attacking the plan as Obamacare 2.0. At least four or five other Republican Senators as well as GOP governors oppose the plan because of the phase-out of Medicaid. The powerful AARP lobby has come out in opposition.

Yet Mitch McConnell is promising to move swiftly on Ryancare. As Jonathan Chait reports "that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announced his intention to jam the House bill through the Senate quickly. Rather than develop its own bills through committees and the normal debate process, McConnell declared he plans to bring it directly to the Senate floor".

There are two options here. One theory is that Ryan and McConnell are going to rush this bill through before the CBO can score the plan, essentially daring all those Republicans who ran on repeal and replace to vote against Ryancare virtually blind. The problem with that is it is hard to see McConnell even able to force a vote so quickly with the amount of Republican opposition, much less pass it.

The second option is outlined by Chait and that is that the Republican leadership in Congress has essentially decided to give up on repeal and replace. It would likely chew up most of this year's legislative calendar to get all the elements of the Republican party to hash out a plan that would actually be able to pass. Instead, leadership has simply decided to get a vote on a bill, any bill as we see with Ryancare, and have it go down to defeat. With that out of the way, they can then move on with the rest of their agenda especially tax reform and the rollback of business and environmental regulations that their corporate overlords really want. Perhaps they can find some creative accounting method (like they always do) to provide a massive tax cut for the rich in the tax reform plan.

There are dangers for both Republicans and Democrats with this strategy, but more so for the GOP. Democrats will be able to claim an enormous victory and claim they have protected American's health. But it may reduce the intensity of the resistance to the Trump administration and the GOP agenda. Personally, I think Trump and the GOP will still provide plenty of material to keep fueling Democratic engagement until the 2018 elections. The other potential pitfall for the Democrats is one that I've been harping on since right after the election and that is that the present uncertainty about health care will lead to may insurers to drop out of the exchanges in 2018, essentially having Obamacare implode that way. The GOP can then pick up a replacement bill after the midterms, having been "proven right" that Obamacare was collapsing on its own.

The danger for Republicans is that hard right conservatives will look at this as once again the ultimate betrayal. Have bleated constantly for the last seven years about repealing Obamacare and now having control of the White House and Congress, it will simply be unacceptable not to be able to pass a bill that unwinds Obamacare. That anger in the base will not be forgotten by 2018. And it certainly may put Paul Ryan's position as Speaker in serious jeopardy. In addition, I'm pretty sure Donald Trump will blame a defeat like this which leaves one of his signature promises unfulfilled squarely on the GOP leaders in Congress. That does not bode well for Republican unity on issues going forward.

Let's hope Chait is right about the GOP punting on repeal and replace and I am wrong about what will happen in 2018. For Democrats, hope and relentless resistance are our only options.