Trump Administration Oblivious To Massive Job Losses From Robots And AI

The other day I wrote that Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin seemed just a wee bit out of touch with reality, especially when it came to focusing, or rather ignoring, the impact that technology and artificial intelligence (AI) has today and will have in the near future on employment. In an interview was asked about the impact of AI and his response should frighten almost all workers around the country. Said Mnuchin, ""[I]t's not even on our radar screen....50-100 more years...I'm not worried at all."

PriceWaterhouse Coopers release a study last week recently that estimated 38% of jobs in the US are at risk of being replaced by the oncoming robot and AI revolution in the next decade and a half. 38%, think about that. And that's within the next 15 years, not the 50 or 100 as Mnuchin imagines. According to the report, "The likelihood of automation appears highest in sectors such as transport, manufacturing, and wholesale and retail, and lower in education, health and social work...Male workers could be at greater potential risk of job automation than women, but education is the key differentiating factor for individual workers."

The report makes clear that additional jobs will be created that offset some, if not all, of these job losses. But those new jobs will be more specialized and require specific skills. This will then further exacerbate income inequality, as lower skilled workers shed jobs and the new jobs created require higher skilled workers with theoretically higher pay.

All this screams to start putting together massive job retraining programs, something sorely lacking in the US. What job retraining programs we do have are often privatized rip-offs that get students into debt with the unfulfilled promise of a job that never materializes, kind of like Trump University. What we really need is real job retraining that targets specific industry needs. But I think we all know even that will not be enough. Which is why ideas like universal basic income or massive government employment programs are constantly being floated.

Of course, nothing will happen to address these oncoming problems under this administration. As Mnuchin makes clear, they don't even see the problem. In this area, as in climate change and others, the Trump administration looks more and more like Nero who simply fiddled as Rome burned.