Domestically, these actions will solidify Trump's standing with both the evangelical community, which is now probably the most significant part of his base, and the hardliners on Iran. Whether the decision is driven by the closing in of the Mueller investigation on both Trump and his immediate family is certainly something that should be considered.
The move also again isolates us from our important allies, not only in Europe but also in parts of the Arab world. Turkey, Jordan, France, and the EU have all spoken out forcefully against making this move, apparently to no avail.
More importantly, the decision seems deliberately intended to provoke two potential actions. First, it will further ensure the view in parts of the Muslim world that the US is an enemy of its people and religion. And it would greatly increase the likelihood of a terrorist attack on the United States. Given Trump's authoritarian inclinations and the collection of hard-liners and abject sycophants in the Republican Congress, there is no telling the lengths that Trump would and could go in order to consolidate his own authority and power in the wake of such an attack.
Secondly, it is surely designed to provoke another round of battles between Israel and Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran has already started to repair its fractured relationship with Hamas and this decision will surely hasten that rapprochement. The resulting attacks will give the Israelis the opportunity to go in militarily and establish on the ground the "peace" plan concocted together by Jared Kushner and Mohammed bin Salman out in the Saudi Arabian desert at 4am one morning.
That plan would establish a Palestinian state that would be non-contiguous, with limited sovereignty, as well as eliminate the possibility of East Jerusalem as its capital and any right of return for displaced Palestinians and their descendants. It is a plan that no Palestinian will ever willingly accept and will be similarly unacceptable in much of the Arab world. And the fact that it is being "negotiated" with only US allies by a man with no foreign policy experience and who is a devout follower of the Jewish faith provides the plan with virtually no credibility at all in the Arab and Palestinian communities.
Moreover, when Hezbollah and Hamas attack Israel, as they most assuredly will after this decision, it may well provide the opportunity to implement the hard-liners' ultimate goal, war with Iran before it has nuclear capability. Iran's support for Hamas and Hezbollah will be portrayed as exporting terrorism and provide the excuse for the invasion of Iran that Israel and the hard liners in Congress having been attempting to deliver ever since Obama began negotiating the nuclear agreement with that country.
Moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem will take years. But the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital will have an immediate effect and forever preclude the possibility that the US could be considered an "honest broker" in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This decision will cost lives on the ground, in Israel, in Palestine, in Lebanon, and potentially across the wider Mideast and even here in the United States. It will not end well.
No comments:
Post a Comment