Sweet Home Alabama?

Almost everything about tomorrow's election in Alabama is simply hard to believe. I guess at this point we should not be surprised that an alleged sexual predator is running a competitive race for a top elected office in this country. And I guess we shouldn't be surprised that segments of the Republican party establishment are also supporting that alleged predator. But it is still surprising that a person who has refused to obey the orders of the US Supreme Court, believes in a theocracy where God's law supersedes the Constitution, and has openly expressed racist, homophobic, and xenophobic ideas could actually still be a viable candidate in this day and age. I think we are also all surprised that a Democrat is able to run a competitive race in the state of Alabama. And even more surprising is the idea that Alabama is actually the place in this country where voters could deliver a stinging rebuke to the extremist, retrograde Trump/Bannon elements that currently dominate the Republican party.

Now we all know that if Roy Moore loses, Trump will say that his original candidate, Luther Strange, would have won. And, for once, he's probably right. But Strange was never the candidate of the Trump wing of the party and Trump's deviance from that party line was largely attributed to the influence of the hated Mitch McConnell. And, in any case, Trump has gone all in with Moore as the election has drawn closer and the loss of a Republican vote in the Senate looks like it might become reality. So, a Moore loss would now be seen as at least a partial repudiation of Trump.

I will also note that Doug Jones has run a pretty good campaign. While Moore's sexual predations were dominating the media, Jones was focusing on the issues that concern Alabama voters. In addition, he has made no attempt to nationalize the election and has kept the Democratic establishment at bay. And only in the home stretch has he focused his message on Moore's unfitness for office and the negative impact his election might have on the state.

Lastly, probably one of the least politically astute moments of Hillary Clinton's campaign was when she said, "You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right?” Clinton said. “The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic—you name it. And unfortunately there are people like that. And he has lifted them up." Even if Roy Moore loses, he will easily garner well over 40% of the vote. And that will only confirm that Hillary's comment, while politically tone-deaf, was also assuredly true.

The polls are all over the place in this election and it is almost impossible to estimate the turnout and structure of the electorate in order to make a good prediction. Fox News has Jones up by 10 points while Emerson has him down by 9, with the critical difference in the two polls' methodologies being the fact that Fox included cell phones.

If forced to make a prediction (and my history as a prognosticator is truly terrible), I'm guessing that Jones will just squeak in. Many establishment Alabama Republicans are virtually barred from supporting Jones because the Alabama GOP bylaws deny ballot access for six years to a member who "publicly supported a nominee of another political party." That will not stop them from voting against Moore in the privacy of the voting booth. I think there will also be a significant numbers in the business community who will also be concerned about the potential impacts to the Alabama economy and the image of the state if Moore does win. In addition, Jones has seemingly put together a pretty strong voter contact and GOTV effort. Lastly, as we saw in the surprisingly strong turnout in Virginia, it appears that the resistance is highly motivated. Putting that all together, it just might be enough to put Jones over the top.