For Democrats, there is a danger of actually trying to work with the GOP on healthcare right now as it actually keeps the zombie alive for time being. So the tack of spouting bipartisan hopes and laying out ACA changes that they know Republicans will not accept is the proper stance for Democrats. In addition, those changes should be designed to laying out a path to single payer, similar to what Bernie Sanders is currently proposing.
Republicans in Congress will now probably want to move on to so-called tax reform. But the failure to repeal and replace the ACA has added a trillion dollars to the budget baseline, meaning that any tax reform will almost certainly have to sunset in the ten year window. And the similar divides within the GOP caucus that were laid bare in the healthcare debate will be equally present in tax reform, which is inextricably tied up with the 2018 budget. Perhaps, in some small way, the failure of healthcare may make it marginally easier to actually get tax reform and the budget done. Once again, however, it will probably still be rather difficult for Republicans to get that legislation done via reconciliation with just GOP votes.
That difficulty might actually force Republicans to seek Democratic votes, once again asking Democrats to be the adults in the room. They will certainly need Democratic votes to raise the debt ceiling which will require 60 votes. Mnuchin has determined that will need to be done by the end of September, which does not leave a lot of time and further complicates the ability to get tax reform and the budget completed. But that will also finally give Democrats some leverage and at least some ability to try and help craft an acceptable bipartisan solution on the budget and the tax plan. If that creates some momentum, there is a remote possibility that bipartisan spirit just might carry over to healthcare next year, but don't count on it.
The failure of the ACA repeal and having to get Democratic votes to pass a watered down version of tax reform, pass a budget, and raise the debt ceiling will infuriate the reactionary base and create more calls for the leadership to be replaced. On the other hand, Trump is liable to glom on to any legislative achievement as one of the great landmarks as President.
Meanwhile, Republicans in Congress will do their best to ignore Trump and the chaos he surrounds himself with and revels in. And they will try to find a way to salvage their electoral prospects in 2018. Both Trump and the reactionary base of their party will make that job increasingly difficult. And more and more vulnerable Republicans will become more comfortable with asking Democrats to help them save their own skin.
For Democrats, the question is whether they should work with Republicans or let the GOP own its failures. If recent history is any guide, the tactic of united and implacable opposition has worked wonders for the Republican party while not necessarily serving the best interests of the country. The GOP has chosen party over country for decades. Democrats may need to make a similar choice in order to regain political power.
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