Failure Of GOP Agenda Will Make Trump An Even More Dangerous President

Ever since Trump was inaugurated, the Republicans have been in a race to see whether they could pass their agenda of gutting the safety net built over the last 75 years and enacting massive tax breaks for the rich and corporations before Trump becomes such a liability that he had to be impeached. As the GOP agenda stalls, Trump becomes even more erratic and frustrated. And as he gets more frustrated, he will get angry and lash out. This will include American targets such as the media, immigrants, Democrats, and even some recalcitrant Republicans. But it will also include foreign targets as Trump falls back on Bannon's nationalism in order to keep his base in line and deflect attention from his domestic failures. Because of this, we are now entering the real danger zone with Donald Trump.

The Senate has just left town without moving on health care. Whether Mitch McConnell can cobble something together between now and when the GOP returns from the July 4th recess remains to be seen, although his legislative maneuvering and arm-twisting is legendary. Tax reform has barely even been discussed and the internal battles within the GOP will only get worse as they have to confront the budget and the debt ceiling in the fall. It seems quite possible that we could get well into November and Trump will have nothing to show for his vaunted leadership and GOP control of government other than Neil Gorsuch.

There is now new direct evidence of probably collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians, with Flynn, Bannon, and Conway now being specifically named. Indications are that Manafort and Flynn are probably cooperating with the investigation. And the investigation is now focusing on the financial dealings of Trump and his associates before, during, and after the campaign. Other damaging revelations are liable to dribble out over the coming months, provoking Trump even further. It is quite possible that at some point he will even fire Special Counsel Mueller.

Trump's growing anger and frustration will mean increased focus on the terrible domestic policies he and his administration are already engaged in. Even beyond the withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, the EPA under Scot Pruitt is rolling back regulations at an unprecedented pace while at the same time ignoring and destroying any real science within the agency. Reports are now surfacing that ICE is now targeting the legal families and sponsors of undocumented children, moving the administration ever closer to an "expansion away from targeted enforcement and more toward a general population enforcement", as one former Justice Department official described it. The administration has also taken the most restrictive view of "close familial relationship" in response to the Supreme Court decision allowing the partial Muslim ban, probably provoking another court challenge. On the health care front, Trump is now talking about simply repealing the ACA and figuring out what to do to replace it at some later date. And his refusal to guarantee the CSR payments to insurers is helping to drive up premiums for next year.

After the collapse of the health care vote in the Senate and the revelation that a top Republican operative, who claims he was working with senior Trump advisers, was trying to work with the Russians in order to obtain Clinton's deleted emails, Trump went on a rampage about the media. He spent three days trashing Morning Joe and again admitted another potential crime, essentially trying to extort positive coverage from the program in return for spiking a negative story about Joe and Mika. Last night he used the occasion of an address to veterans to again bash the media. And this morning he retweeted a video basically endorsing violence against CNN specifically. This behavior will only get worse as things deteriorate for Trump on the policy front.

More disturbing is the prospect of what Trump will do in the area of foreign policy. We have already seen that Trump came incredibly close to pulling out of NAFTA, before being convinced the move would hurt his base of support in rural areas as much if not more than most. Now Axios is reporting that Trump is on the precipice of starting a global trade war by imposing tariffs of up to 20% on Chinese steel. The tariffs could extend to other imports such as aluminum, semiconductors, paper, solar panels, and even appliances. Trump is apparently scheduled to call Chinese President Xi and Japanese Prime Minister Abe tonight, apparently to explain his decision. Whether those two can talk Trump down from the precipice as Trudeau apparently helped to do with NAFTA, we will soon know. If Trump does go ahead with these tariffs, there is no telling what kind of retaliation will be forthcoming from the Chinese and others and the possibility of a global trade war and the collapse of the WTO, while still remote, would be real. Apparently, the entire cabinet with the exception of Wilbur Ross is opposed to the idea but Trump and Bannon support it. If Trump does in fact make this move, it too will immediately end up in court as those industries hurt by the tariffs sue to block it. And, if Trump is thwarted on his tariffs and the travel ban, expect to see even more open defiance of the courts.

Trump has largely left Mattis and McMaster take care of all matters military. This has seen the US take a much more aggressive stance in Syria, endangering a direct confrontation with Russia, and expanding our presence in Afghanistan. And the issue of North Korea's nuclear potential is still hanging out there. His relationship with China seems to run hot and cold but starting a trade war with the Chinese may just be a first step toward a military confrontation in the South China Sea. Trump has already created a crisis in the Mideast with his backing of Saudi Arabia and attacks on Qatar. So there is no telling when Trump will decide to focus his rage in the foreign policy arena with even more dangerous and unpredictable results.

It is possible at some point this fall, Republicans will realize that any chance for their agenda this year has completely collapsed. At that point, Trump may be lashing out in such damaging fashion that enough Republicans who actually have to fear a Democratic challenge as opposed to a primary opponent in 2018 may have to start thinking long and hard about whether they can afford the Trump baggage going into next year. And that will itself precipitate a vicious cycle where Trump becomes even more frustrated and aggressive in shoring up his base with America First nationalism, putting even more Republicans in Congress at risk. As I say, we are now entering the real danger zone in the Trump presidency. The next few months could provide an even wilder ride than they usual Trump chaos.

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