Trump's Support Among Republicans Is Overstated In Polls

A couple of days ago, I posted that Trump's support was slipping as the failures of the Republican agenda mounts. However, despite the  Russia investigation, Trump's erratic behavior in general, and the collapse of the GOP agenda, support for Trump among self-identified Republicans still remains high, in the low 80s according to recent polls.

While an approval rate in the low 80s sounds great, that reflects a nearly 10 point deterioration since Trump was inaugurated. And now a new study indicates that approval number may be artificially inflated by the collapse in the number of self-identified Republicans. A new study by Emory University political scientists shows that Republican identification has dropped a significant 4% since the 2016 election. The Emory study then tried to determine what Trump's approval rating would be assuming that 4% still identified as Republican. An earlier Pew study showed that 84% of those who switched from leaning or identifying as Republican from late 2015 until April, 2017 disapproved of Trump, as one might expect. Extrapolating from the Pew study, the Emory political scientists believe that Trump's approval rating among Republicans is probably really somewhere in the 70s, which is getting into the real danger zone not only for Trump but for Republicans in general.

Even more worrying for Trump and the Republicans is the fact that most Republicans still do not think the Russian investigation is very important. As Robert Mueller starts digging into the Trump family business dealings, you can be sure a lot of damaging information will come out. In addition, there is also the risk of a real constitutional crisis if, as Trump indicated in his NY Times interview, he decides the FBI and DOJ must answer entirely to him and he fires Mueller.

For Republicans in Congress who continue to turn a blind eye to Trump's incompetence and transgressions, the downside risks of that continued support are growing by the day, especially if their agenda is not moving forward anyway. And Republicans may also find that what they thought was strong support for Trump among the rank and file is far weaker and thinner than they imagined.