Moderate GOP House Members Just Had The Limb They Went Out On Sawed Off By Senate

Swing district House Republicans are in the middle of a total freak-out these days as it is becoming clear that they may have made a fatal mistake in being bullied into voting to repeal and replace Obamacare without any clear understanding of what would actually happen in the Senate. Now, it looks like moderate GOP Senators are going to be forced to walk the plank in order to simply protect the reputation of hard right Senators while at the same time becoming a target for the Trump base.

Back in 1993-1994, Democrats made a slightly different, but similar, mistake that cost them dearly in the 1994 midterms. But at least when Democrats realized they were never going to pass the Clinton health care plan, they never forced their members to take a vote. That decision may have cost the party Democratic votes in the midterms while the Republicans were highly motivated. But at least no individual member was targeted for the specific vote.

Now, however, moderate Republican House members will be on the hook for their vote this spring. This was the risk they took when they were bullied by Paul Ryan to vote for the bill in the House with the almost explicit promise that the Senate would improve it. Instead, the Senate may not even have a vote at all and some House members are not happy.  Darrell Issa, representing a district that Trump lost by 8 points says, "The Senate dropped the ball." Mark Amodei admitted he was "pissed". Even Michael Burgess, a hard-core supporter of repeal, was on MSNBC earlier today almost demanding the Senate at least take a vote.

On the Senate side, Mitch McConnell seems determined to try to still get something passed under the guise of bringing something to the floor. Once that happens, amendments will be allowed meaning that no one knows what the bill will finally look once that process ends. It is hard to believe that the numerous Senators who both openly and silently oppose the current Senate plan would even allow something like this to come to floor. In addition, many of those Senators, especially those who were publicly hedging or silently opposed would surely not be interested in having to record their vote and essentially become a target. By trying to force this vote, McConnell and the hard right are essentially trying to isolate moderate GOP Senators is yet another step in the growing split in the Republic party.

Just now, the CBO score of the Senate bill just came out and it shows that 17 million would lose insurance in 2018 and that number would rise to 32 million by 2026. In addition, premiums will almost immediately rise by 25% and would double by 2026. On the other hand, it will cut the deficit by over $450 billion over the next 10 years, opening up room not only for McConnell to bribe reluctant Senators but also big tax cuts for the rich. These numbers are only going to harden Senator's opposition to this bill making it even less likely McConnell will be able to bring anything to the floor.

One last point, it is clear that three female Senators, Collins, Murkowski, and Capito, were going to sink this bill no matter what. Much of this was simply because the bill would decimate health care in their states. But it does show that perhaps more female members might bring a little more sanity to Congress in general.

Moderate Republican House members have already gone out on a limb and had it sawed off by the Senate. It is hard to see why those Senators who oppose the current Senate bill would want to join those House members on a different limb where they will be forced to take a vote simply so they can become a target of the Trump base.