Trump's Weakness Apparent As GOP Congress Takes Control Of The Agenda

Congress has finally returned from the Easter recess and they have apparently learned one very important lesson and that is to ignore Donald Trump. I don't think there were too many GOP congressman getting an earful about not repealing Obamacare and not following through on Trump's agenda. With Trump's popularity still in the low 40s at best, most of them know they have nothing to fear from the President right now.

Trump has spent most of the congressional recess trying to force Congress to give him a big win somewhere so he will have something to show for his first 100 days. First, there was the big push to make another attempt at Obamacare repeal and replace. Then there was the threat to suspend the insurer subsidies to Obamacare in some bizarre attempt to force Democrats to deal on the ACA. That was never going to happen. Trump then offered Democrats a worse deal, trying to trade continuing the insurer subsidies for money for the border wall, a deal that was again immediately rejected. Then he threatened to shut the government down if he didn't get money for the border wall. That couldn't even make it by Republicans in Congress and Trump has apparently caved on that. All he is left with is announcing, again, a "framework' for tax reform and a few more of those executive orders.

Republicans in Congress, meanwhile, are just interested in passing a continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government open after April 28th. They have no interest in helping Trump get a "win" because that will just complicate their efforts to pass the CR. Democrats will need to provide votes in the Senate in order to get anything passed so their demands for a "clean" CR will probably be met, although it's still possible, but not probable, that the House Freedom Caucus will not even go for that.

The real question is how long the CR will be in effect. Republicans probably want a short-term CR so they can package together some kind of combination of omnibus agreement for agreed upon budget items and a CR for the areas of the budget where the parties can not agree, but it is hard to see why Democrats would go along with that. I would hope that Democrats would shoot for a CR to expire in September or October, further filling the legislative calendar and making it harder for Republicans to pass any budget that this year that fulfilled any of Trump's promises. Increased spending for the military, defunding Planned Parenthood, and funding for the border wall would all essentially be blocked.

Trump will bluff and bluster like he always does. But this time, probably for the first time, Republicans in Congress are simply ignoring him. They are not afraid of his bully pulpit because they know he can't use it effectively. He may still be popular with his base, but that isn't enough. Congress will pass the CR with the full knowledge that Trump will cave on everything he's demanded and sign it. Trump's weakness will be laid bare for all to see and that does not bode well for any of his priorities that do not exactly line up with the GOP in Congress. That means Trump's agenda will now be set by Congress and it will be tax breaks and regulation rollbacks and not much more. That will still be terrible but Trump himself will have effectively been sidelined.