Theresa May Shockingly Calls For Snap Election In UK

In an abrupt reversal and what amounts to an enormous gamble, Theresa May has called a snap election in the UK and British voters will yet again go to the polls on June 8. May's decision was an enormous surprise and contrary to what she has consistently said since she took over for the disgraced David Cameron. Nicola Sturgeon has called May's decision and "extraordinary U-turn" while other MPs have been even more forceful. Labour MP Jess Phillips said that "Theresa May has lied to the country again and again - and she is being opportunistic".

According to May, she reluctantly came to this conclusion in the last few weeks, complaining about parliamentary gridlock. "In recent weeks, Labour have threatened to vote against the final agreement we reach with the European Union. The Liberal Democrats said they want to grind the business of government to a standstill. The Scottish National Party say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain’s membership of the European Union. And unelected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way...If we do not hold a general election now, their political game playing will continue."

Such a diverse group in opposition might give one pause, but May hopes that the disarray in the Labour party will allow the Conservatives to pick up more seats in Parliament and give her a firmer majority. But even the Conservatives are not a united bloc supporting May's negotiating stance of a "hard" Brexit.

May formally began the process of negotiating the UK's exit from the European Union less than a month ago when she finally invoked Article 50. At that time, she sketched out her plan for a clean break from the EU, although many of the details were lacking simply because Brexit will be  negotiation. Calling this snap election seems like an attempt to confirm her approach to Brexit negotiations after she has already decided on the strategy.

While some other issues may come up in the short campaign, this vote will primarily be another referendum on Brexit, less than a year after the original vote. This election will give Nicola Sturgeon and SNP an opportunity to further consolidate their power and opposition to Brexit in Scotland and do the same for the SDLP and Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland. Large wins in those countries by the parties opposed to Brexit will make independence referendums in those countries even more likely. Sturgeon has already vowed to hold such a referendum in Scotland before the final acceptance of Brexit. In addition, this gives the Liberal Democrats another opening to expand their base in England and recapture some of the seats they have lost to Conservatives in the last election.

Moreover, this election will be focused on the details of the Brexit negotiations and the pro-Brexit forces will not be able to get away with the breezy rhetoric and outright lies, such as the millions of pounds that would be saved and funneled into the NHS, that they got away with in the original Brexit referendum. The pressure on the government to provide real details about their negotiating strategy should be strong and any details that do emerge will be critiqued by the industries and constituents they effect. The focus has fundamentally changed from everything that the EU does that is bad to how the government is going to protect the things that the EU brings that is good. That is an entirely different ground to be running on election on.

May's entire gamble here seems to hang on the total disarray in the Labour party. But this election will not be about who leads the country, meaning that the top of the ticket will matter less than usual. The election will entirely be a referendum on May's approach to Brexit, leaving local Labour MPs freedom to campaign as needed. And whatever gains the Conservatives will make in England will be offset by the increased chances that Scotland and Northern Ireland will be one step closer to leaving the Union. As we have seen recently, elections these days are highly unpredictable and the electorate can seemingly turn on a dime. For May, this election not only reeks of rank opportunism but poses more danger that Conservatives and the UK as a whole will emerge weaker than before than I think she even realizes.