An Administration, And Perhaps A Party, In Total Disarray

The Trump administration is closing in on its 100th day in office and, despite all the big campaign promises, the only real accomplishment has been to break a longstanding Senate norm to put Neil Gorsuch on the Supreme Court. Other than that, the administration has shown itself to be in almost total disarray which has now seemingly infected the entire Republican party.

Things started badly for Trump when his Muslim ban 1.0 and 2.0 were both soundly rejected by the courts. And his other grand-sounding executive orders either accomplished nothing or set in motion processes that may take years to complete, if ever. Then there was the raft of ethically challenged cabinet nominees, some of whom could not even make it through the ethics process despite the totally compliant Senate Republicans. That was followed by the Flynn debacle, where Trump fired his NSA only after press reports leaked regarding Flynn's lies about his Russian contacts, contacts and lies Trump had know about for weeks prior.

Trump's broad-strokes budget proposal was declared dead on arrival by congressional Republicans and the three week disaster of the Obamacare repeal and replace ended without even a vote. Even now, Trump still insists that negotiations are continuing on health care but it's hard to know who he is negotiating with since Congress is out of town on recess. In desperation, Trump is talking about packaging an infrastructure program with either health care or a tax plan in order to try to win over some Democratic votes. Meanwhile, Ryan's border tax is dead in the Senate and Trump is trying to start over on tax reform, with a rumored plan doing away with the Social Security payroll tax, the mechanism by which Social security is funded. I'm pretty sure that plan will be met with even more objections than Trumpcare.

In foreign policy, the disarray and confusion is even worse. There was the initial threat to break the traditional "one China" policy on Taiwan while at the same time signaling a withdrawal from Asian concerns by scrapping TPP and Trump's nasty phone call with Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull. Trump quickly backed down on the Taiwan issue but managed to annoy the Europeans with his continued lack of commitment on NATO and the EU. After an initial deafening silence on North Korean missile tests, Trump is talking tough and sending a battle group into the Sea of Japan. But any unilateral attack on North Korea would immediately put millions of innocent people in South Korea in real jeopardy and everyone knows this, even the Chinese. So it is a bit unclear what this show of force will accomplish. If it is trying to push the Chinese to act on North Korea, I'm afraid they will see it as another bluff, just like Taiwan.

On Syria, the disarray is nearly total. Spencer Ackerman has identified five different Trump policies in the span of just ten days. First, the approach was that the Syrians would decide on the fate of Assad. That approach may have emboldened the dictator to use chemical weapons again. The chemical attack created a 180 degree shift in policy and now Assad had to go. The missile strike created a third policy that made the issue more about the use of chemical weapons than the ultimate fate of Assad. That was followed by Tillerson saying that the priority was to defeat ISIS first and then deal with the Assad problem. And yesterday, Sean Spicer, in his disastrous press briefing, indicated that the use of barrel bombs, not just chemical weapons, would trigger a US response. As Tillerson heads to Moscow today, even the Russians are looking for a little clarity in the US position. But before he left the G-7 meeting, Tillerson shocked the Europeans again, asking "Why should U.S. taxpayers be interested in Ukraine?" in an offhand remark. A rash comment like this just invites further adventurism by leaders all over the world, not just the Russians in Ukraine and possibly the Baltics, but also by Assad, the North Koreans, and others.

In the House, the disarray is also readily apparent. The complete breakdown between GOP moderates and the extremists in the Freedom Caucus came into the open during the Trumpcare debate. Paul Ryan is unable to bridge those gaps and lead the caucus and is being held responsible for the idea to lead with Trumpcare and its failure. His border tax plan is dead on arrival in the Senate and has created backlash even among big business, especially the retailers, who are traditional supporters. The daggers are definitely out for him. Trump tweeted that people should tune in to watch Jeanine Pirro on Fox and she demanded Ryan step down. Now Justin Amash of the Freedom Caucus is saying, "We need either a change in direction from this speaker, or we need a new speaker." 

Ryan also is complicit in Devin Nunes' ill-fated attempt to provide cover for Trump's unfounded accusation that Obama wiretapped him. And Nunes has failed to derail the House investigation of Trump's Russian ties, which only get more serious every day. It now appears that Nunes has been lying about the "information" that "supports" Trump's claim, as it is nothing more than routine surveillance.

Perhaps the only functioning body is the Senate where Mitch McConnell has managed to keep his troops in line. He has slowly and methodically gone about repealing any rules that the Obama administration put into effect in the last six months of his term. He has changed the filibuster rule in order to let Neil Gorsuch ascend to the Supreme Court. And I imagine that we will soon see McConnell and the Senate try to take the lead on legislation. But his task will become more formidable when he needs Democratic votes to pass legislation - unless he decides to do away with the legislative filibuster as well.

Meanwhile, the pall of the Russia investigation hangs over everything. The administration has all the looks of a team in full cover-up mode as they constantly get caught lying about the contacts between campaign and transition officials, some of whom are now in the administration, and the Russians. Today it was revealed that the FBI had received a FISA warrant to monitor Carter Page under the belief he was working as a Russian agent. Many of the details in the "Russian dossier" have proved to be true and now some payments detailed in the Ukraine secret ledger to Paul Manafort have been verified. The investigation is not going away no matter how much Trump tries to distract us from it. And new and incriminating details are emerging every day.

This brief history does not even mention the self-inflicted wounds of the Trump administration. The problem with anti-Semitism and Jewish history, the continual leaks about the internal battles in the White House, the tone-deafness on Trump's travel and security costs, and so many others too numerous to mention.

The surprisingly close result in the Kansas House election last night is a sign that the disarray is starting to have an effect even on the Republican base. If Ossoff can win in Georgia that will truly put fear into vulnerable House Republicans. In the Senate, even Mitch McConnell is warning not to "rely on the map" which is incredibly favorable to the GOP in 2018. Whether that fear brings the GOP together to actually get something, anything, done is an open question. More likely, the desire to protect their jobs in 2018 will create even more dysfunction and disarray, especially in the House. If things get really bad and Trump's numbers continue to sink among Republicans, you have to wonder whether Republicans may decide it is necessary to throw Ryan, and perhaps even Trump himself, overboard to save their sinking ship.