Dems Come Close Again In House Election, But Need An Actual Win Soon

In yet another election, Democrats came up just a hair short, with Jon Ossoff garnering 48% of the votes in Georgia's 6th District when 50% would made a runoff unnecessary. That runoff will take place in June and will be a head-to-head matchup with Republican Karen Handel.

It would have been nice for Democrats if Ossoff had managed to take this seat. And it would have sent shock waves through the Republican congressional caucus if he had. An outright win by Ossoff would have forced the GOP to confront Trump more directly and probably derailed what little is left of his legislative agenda.

I expect Ossoff will lose the runoff in June, but if he can maintain his share of the vote in the high 40s, it would accomplish much the same thing as a victory today. That would mean two House elections in a row would show a 20-point swing in the Democrats' favor since last November, the first being in Kansas. If that were extrapolated across the entire country, it would mean well over 100 current GOP House members would lose their seats.

The next real opportunity for Democrats to show their renewed strength is at the end of May, when the special election for the House seat in Montana occurs. There, Rob Quist, a renowned country singer in the state, is running a Bernie Sanders' style campaign and showing surprising strength. Ryan Zinke, the current Secretary of the Interior, was re-elected in 2016 by a 16-point margin. Currently Quist is also running in the high 40s and, like Ossoff, if he can maintain that position, even in another close loss, it would be yet another double-digit swing toward a Democrat.

In addition, there is a special election in South Carolina to replace Budget Director Mick Mulvaney scheduled for June. Mulvaney won by a 20 point margin last November and it really is a safe Republican seat. We won't have a real read on this race until May when the primaries are completed but if Democrats can just cut the margin in this race to 10 points, it would still be a statement.

Peter Wehner, a long-time Republican operative and senior adviser to George W. Bush was on the Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell last night and said, "So, look, this is an administration that is in trouble and the Republican Party is in trouble.  And I think the important thing to bear in mind is
this is in trouble in the first 90 days of his presidency. This is supposed to be the apex of popularity.  So this is – this is a lot of trouble early on."

Republicans are realizing that they are in serious trouble already for 2018. Health care was a debacle, tax reform can't seem to get off the ground, they need to pass a budget this month, and the debt ceiling is looming in the fall. That leaves little or no room for legislative achievements in 2017 and puts the congressional GOP in a tough position for 2018. 

My guess is that the GOP will finally realize they will have to pass some legislation in 2018 so they have something to run on that fall. But if Democrats can keep making inroads in the special elections and Trump's poll numbers continue to sink, especially among Republicans, it may actually become even harder for Republicans to pass anything at all.

For Democrats, the most recent results show that it is imperative to compete in every race, no matter how improbable. However, coming close can only last so long. A surprise upset in Georgia or Kansas would be just the kind of "winning" that could be contagious in 2018.