Some Tiny Cracks In The Monolithic GOP Support For Trump

Despite an almost unified front of support for Trump among Republicans in Congress and a refusal to consider moving the Russian investigation to an independent body, there a signs of small cracks in the dam of GOP intransigence.

While every Republican Senator is still committed to seeing the Senate and House committees continue the Russian investigation, at least four of them have expressed openness to a bipartisan commission or special prosecutor at some point in the future. The usual suspects, Lindsey Graham and John McCain have been joined by Lisa Murkowski and, just yesterday, the vulnerable Dean Heller of Nevada.

In the House, some eight GOP Representatives have expressed a similar view. Among them are a number of vulnerable Republican "moderates" (using that term extremely loosely and only in comparison to their radical compatriots), including Barbara Comstock, Mike Coffman, Carlos Curbelo, and Darrell Issa.

Of course, openness to an independent investigation really means nothing at this point, because there is no serious move to actually make that move. But it does reflect an increasing concern among vulnerable Republicans that Trump's Russian problems are serious and a danger to their own future. And, by showing that openness now, they have protected themselves as best they can from whatever might happen in the future. So, while their voices may not be effective in any real way, they are at least a starting point for a more general shift in the GOP position supporting Trump should it ever occur.

More important, however, may be the latest numbers from the most recent Quinnipiac poll. Trump's approval numbers are back down to near his prior low of 35%, registering 36% approval while 58% disapprove. His support among so-called independents has almost totally collapsed, showing a 29%-63% favorable/unfavorable rating. That is an enormous collapse from a 38%-56% number less than one month ago. Support among Trump's supposed base of white working class voters has also dropped precipitously, almost moving into negative territory, with voters split 47%-46%. That is another enormous 10% drop in approval in less than a month. And among white men as a whole, his approval numbers are similarly split 48%-46%, again another five point drop in less than a month.

And even on issues where Trump is believed to be enhancing his popularity, the views of voters are overwhelmingly negative. Disapproval for both Trump's handling of foreign policy and immigration is over 60%. And 58% say that Trump's first 100 days have been a "failure".

Even more worrying than Trump's own cratering poll numbers, are the numbers for Republicans in Congress. The poll showed that voters want Democrats to take back the House in 2018 by a 54%-38% margin. That is over three times higher than the largest differential ever recorded for that question which was 5% back in 2013. And 41% believe the country would be in better shape today if Democrats had won the Senate in 2016, compared to only 27% who said it would be worse,

As Quinnipiac's Tim Malloy said, "There is no way to spin or sugarcoat these sagging numbers." The question is whether numbers like these will begin to frighten GOP members of Congress enough to make them finally take action. Right now, the GOP seems to want to see how much of its agenda it can ram through before Trump's situation becomes untenable. But they still have so much on their plate. There is health care to deal with and then they hope to move on to tax cuts. And in the fall they will still have the budget and the debt ceiling. The danger is, by that time, it may be too late to throw Trump overboard to save them from a Democratic wave in 2018. Meanwhile, Democrats will do everything in their power to slow the legislative process down, using extreme parliamentary maneuvers such as withholding unanimous consent, in order to force the GOP to finally confront Trump.

On the other hand, if the GOP Congress moves too soon against Trump, they endanger not only facing a motivated Democratic base in 2018 but also a large portion of their own base feeling they have been betrayed. The coming months will require GOP leaders in Congress to perform an enormous balancing act between moving on an unpopular agenda and moving against an unpopular President who still remains popular with the GOP base. And even if they manage to survive that high-wire act, nothing may save them from a Democratic wave in 2018.