Kentucky Derby - Analysis And Predictions

It's the first Saturday in May which means it's time for the Kentucky Derby. For the first time in a number of years there is no real clear-cut favorite horse or two. Instead there is a group of five horses who have had varying degrees of success in the run-up to the Run for the Roses that the experts think have an almost equally good chance to win. Because of that, it is possible we will see the favorite go off with some of the highest odds in recent history and the chance for a huge exacta payout with a horse from the field is ripe for the picking.

Classic Empire, coming off a win in the Arkansas Derby, had been the favorite for most of the week, but he has recently been supplanted by Almost Dreaming, an impressive winner in the Florida Derby. In addition, there is the winner of the Wood Memorial, Irish War Cry, Gunnevera, who came from the back of the back to win the Fountain of Youth, a lead-up to the Florida Derby, and McCraken who was undefeated in four races before posting a slightly disappointing third in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Here is the morning line as of around 10am:

1. Lookin at Lee 27-1
2. Thunder Snow 18-1
3. Fast and Accurate 38-1
4. Untrapped 63-1
5. Always Dreaming 4-1
6. State of Honor 56-1
7. Girvin 21-1
8. Hence 14-1
9. Irap 40-1
10. Gunnevera 9-1
11. Battle of Midway 38-1
12. Sonneteer 35-1
13. J Boys Echo 44-1
14. Classic Empire 7-1
15. McCraken 7-1
16. Tapwrit 27-1
17. Irish War Cry 5-1
18. Gormley 21-1
19. Practical Joke 30-1
20. Patch 15-1

With the field this tight, your guess is as good as mine, but I'm going to go with Classic Empire at 7-1. And then, in honor of my father, I'll take a fling on an Always Dreaming/Battle of Midway exacta. Post time is at 5:34PM EDT.