House Apparently Will Vote On Trumpcare 3.0 Tomorrow

Apparently, the House will actually vote on Trumpcare 3.0 tomorrow and they may actually have the votes to pass it. The whole exercise has had less to do with health care than with making whatever deals need to made to just get the bill to the floor for a vote and pass the buck over to the Senate.

There is nothing in this new bill that would reduce the estimated 24 million that would lose insurance based on the CBO estimate of the original bill. In fact it would probably increase that number. There will still be nearly $900 million in Medicaid cuts. While it theoretically maintains the requirement to cover pre-existing conditions, it allows insurers to charge higher premiums for those with pre-existing conditions. Estimates are that people with asthma would see their premiums rise by around $4,000; diabetes $5,500; pregnancy $17,000; arthritis $26,000; and cancer premiums could rise by an incredible $140,000.  In addition, states can opt-out of the minimum insurance standards and basically allow insurers to sell junk insurance. That change would not only effect people currently on Obamacare BUT ALSO ON EMPLOYER-PROVIDED PLANS AS WELL! Lastly, I have already written that citizens in states like California and New York that require insurance plans cover abortion would not be eligible for the tax credits that are essentially replacing the Obamacare subsidies.

Republicans are rushing this vote through without getting it scored by the CBO and the expectation is that the numbers will be even worse than the original. There has been no input from the any of the interested medical organizations and lobbies. But with the latest budget deal being seen as a total capitulation by the Republican base, the need for some kind of win for Trump, Ryan, and the House Freedom Caucus was enormous, with Ryan probably being the one with the most need. On the other hand, this vote will leave Republican moderates hung out to dry, even if they vote no but the bill still passes.

Everyone knows that this bill will never go anywhere in the Senate, if it even gets taken up at all. That would truly leave the Republicans in the House hung out to dry. If it is taken up by the Senate, it will come back to the House in a far different form that would once again be unlikely to pass the House. So this is strictly a CYA process for conservatives and Ryan.

Obviously, Democrats should hope the bill goes down to defeat in the House or, even better, never actually makes it to a vote. Legislation has the uncanny habit of getting completed in some form once it gets passed in one house of Congress or other. That would be a disaster for Democrats and for the country. But there is a feeling that there may be a silver lining if the bill simply comes up for a vote tomorrow. Some Democrats privately feel that it would increase their chances of retaking the House in 2018. For moderate Republicans, the Democratic attack ads simply write themselves. For the House Freedom Caucus, this is not repealing Obamacare but a bastardized replacement plan. As the head of the House Democratic Caucus Chairman said, "There’s a cadre of 35 to 40 Republicans who are staring death in the face if they give their vote."