Eastern Conference
New York Rangers v. Ottawa Senators - Result: Ottawa in 6; Prediction: Rangers in 6;
Ottawa has seemingly been doing it with smoke and mirrors all year long. I believe that, among all the teams that made the playoffs, they had given up the most goals, usually not a recipe for winning playoff-style hockey. But they just keep on winning and can do that playing either an up-and-down score fest or a tight defensive struggle. They literally stole two games in which they were clearly outplayed, just by hanging in there and getting the late goal or goals. That was epitomized in Game 2, where the Rangers gave up multiple 3 goal leads and blew a two goal lead with under 5 minutes left. J.T. Pageau scored those two late goals plus the overtime winner, giving him a record-tying four goal playoff game and Ottawa a 2-0 lead in the series. Craig Anderson matched Lundqvist in net and Erik Karlsson could just take over a game, even with his fractured ankle which required him to sit for part of the series, as he did to put New York away in Game 6. The Rangers, on the other hand, had enormous periods of truly lackluster play. Their inability to hold the lead cost them two games and basically the series. I hate to say it, but this kind of lackluster, timid playoff performance has become a hallmark of Alain Vigneault coached teams, both here in New York and in Vancouver. And you just have to wonder how many more chances poor Henrik Lundqvist has.
Washington Capitals v. Pittsburgh Penguins - Result: Penguins in 7; Prediction: Caps in 7;
Washington looked horrendous in their series against Toronto, from the goalie on out. And when they continued that horrendous play, losing the first two games at home, it looked like a quick series. Down 3-1 in the series, and down a goal heading into third period of that potential elimination game, all of a sudden the Caps started playing like they did all season. They rallied to take game 5 and thoroughly dominated Game 6 in Pittsburgh, setting themselves up for another Game 7 collapse which they provided, losing 2-0 in a game where they reverted to their earlier form. Braden Holtby was downright awful for the first 4 and two-thirds games. His save percentage at that point was down in the .850 range while being totally outplayed by Marc Andre Fleury, who was closer to .950 at that same time. Pittsburgh just kept losing guys all series long, especially on defense and including Sidney Crosby for nearly two games, but every man who came in stepped up and did the job. It was not only an indication of the depth the Penguins have but the great coaching throughout the organization. Crosby, of course, proved why he is still one of, if not the, best player in the league with his great all-around play. Ovechkin, on the other hand, will take most of the heat for this loss. This team was built to win this year and will now be broken up. But the problem for the Caps this year was not Alex. Kevin Shattenkirk was nowhere near the force he should have been and, along with Orlov and others, had some massive defensive lapses. Kuznetsov scored goals for the Caps but never seemed a real force either. But I really think the biggest share of the blame has to go to Vezina candidate Braden Holtby. No team is ever going to win a series with their goalie posting an .850 save percentage in over two thirds of the series.
Western Conference
St. Louis Blues v. Nashville Predators - Result: Predators in 6; Prediction: Predators in 6;
This was my only winning prediction and it pretty much followed the script I'd laid out. Jake Allen's spectacular play kept St. Louis in it early in the series but Nashville's pressure at both ends of the ice was simply suffocating. The Blues size looked like it was starting to wear down the Predators as the series went along but, when that happened, Pekka Rinne just held the fort. There were very few times in this series where you really felt the Blues had a chance to win.
Anaheim Ducks v. Edmonton Oilers - Result: Ducks in 7; Prediction: Oilers in 7;
This was by far the most exciting and entertaining series of the four. Too bad it required so many late nights to see. Edmonton won the first two games in Anaheim and headed home with a chance to end this series early. That was when Ryan Getzlaf took over and the Oilers started to leak badly. In Game 4, Edmonton blew an early two goal lead, rallied to send the game to overtime but Jakob Silfverberg won it for the Ducks and tied the series. But the Oilers had plenty of reason to complain as the Ducks go-ahead goal in the 2nd period was a clear case of goalie interference that was not called. That grievance was compounded in Game 5, when the Oilers incredibly blew a three goal lead with under 4 minutes to play and again there was a case for goalie interference on the tying goal, although less clear cut than in Game 4. Again, the Oilers lost in OT. But they rallied to force a Game 7 which Anaheim won in a tight 2-1 game with an early third period goal. John Gibson, who was the usual weak link for the Ducks with his erratic play, actually had his best game of the series in Game 7 and the Ducks young defense corps held up well enough. Connor McDavid was largely held in check but that just opened up the ice for all the other young and talented forwards that the Oilers have, especially Leon Draisaitl and Mark Letestu. As mentioned, Getzlaf was just dominant and the veteran forwards like Perry, Kessler, and even Silfverberg had enough to get it done. The Oilers will regret Games 4 and especially Game 5 where they just could not hold the lead and they certainly had reason to gripe about the officiating. But you expect the young and talented Oilers to be a playoff factor for the foreseeable future. In the end, it was another classic Stanley Cup playoff series.
I'll be back later with predictions for the Conference Finals which begin tonight.
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