The Run For The Roses - Analysis And Prediction

It is yet another wide open Kentucky Derby this year with a starting field of 20 horses, nearly half of which have a reasonable shot at winning this first leg of the 2018 Triple Crown. At present, there are six horses with odds of less than 10-1 and another two with odds of less than 20-1.

Justify, the Santa Anita Derby winner trained by the legendary Bob Baffert, is the deserved favorite and will be trying to break what's known as Apollo's curse, the fact that no two-year old has won the Derby since Apollo in 1882. Mendelsohn is the second favorite of the betting public, currently around 5-1. This horse was trained in Ireland and now based in Dubai and will be bringing in big money from European and Middle Eastern gamblers. But any of the Triple Crown races are always difficult for horses brought in from overseas, not one has ever won the Derby, and Mendelsohn only arrived in the States on Monday.

Audible, Bolt d'Oro, My Boy Jack, and Good Magic round out the field of top contenders. Audible won the Florida Derby and has the favorable post number 5 in this crowded field. Bolt d'Oro hasn't run a bad race all year and had an excellent showing at the Santa Anita Derby. My Boy Jack has had ten starts this year which may put him at a disadvantage in this lightly raced but talented field. Good Magic has had some good workouts here at Churchill Downs and has impressed trackside observers.

The pace of this race may be determinative. A slow pace may allow a couple of the longshot speedsters and closers such as Lone Sailor and Noble Indy, who unfortunately drew post 19, to be a factor.

Here is my prediction:

Win: Good Magic
Place: Justify
Show: Lone Sailor

Good luck and enjoy the races!