That happened for Jelena Ostapenko last year. But it was not to be this year as she lost 7-5, 6-3 in a dreadful first round match on Sunday, filled with innumerable errors and 13 double faults by Ostapenko. Ostapenko's play over the last year has proved her title was no fluke but she readily admitted after the match that she felt the enormous pressure of defending her title and it effected her play. Venus Williams also fell to same bug that afflicted Ostapenko, committing 35 unforced errors in her two set loss to Qiang Wang, whom Williams had defeated here in the first round last year.
Theoretically, that should have opened up that quarter of the bracket for last year's quarter-finalist and one of this year's favorites, Elina Svitolina. But even she looked in jeopardy as she fell behind 5-1 in the first set before finally getting it together and rattling off 12 of the next 15 games.
The top quarter of the draw is dominated by the ever erratic #1 seed, Simona Halep, who is looking to avenge last year's loss in the finals and finally win a Grand Slam title. There is really no one in her quarter, other than herself, who should stop Halep from reaching the semis. Similarly, the bottom quarter of the draw is open for the #2 seed Caroline Wozniacki whose only competition should come from Petra Kvitová, neither of whom really prefer the red dirt of Roland Garros.
The remaining quarter of the draw is actually stacked, with three-time champion Maria Sharapova, 2016 champion Garbine Muguruza, #3 seed Karolina Pliskova, and the GOAT Serena Williams, who is returning from her maternity leave from the sport but has yet to find her form. You know Serena will really be back at some point and she surely knows how to rise to the occasion. But she is probably pointing to Wimbledon rather than focusing on the French. You just have the feeling that whoever comes out of this quarter will have the confidence to take down Halep in the semifinal.
Especially for the women, the red clay is the great equalizer and women we have barely heard of can get hot and do serious damage in this tournament as we saw with Ostapenko last year. This year's sleeper might be Kiki Bertens who is in form, beating Wozniacki and Sharapova before losing to Kvitová in the finals of Madrid.
On the men's side, the drama is all at the bottom half of the draw which is populated by #2 seed Alex Zverev, Dominic Thiem, who took down Nadal in Madrid, the still struggling Novak Djokovic, and Gregor Dmitrov. Thiem may have the game and plan to beat Nadal but I just don't think he can string enough great tennis together over the course of two weeks to get there, especially when he would face Zverev in the quarters.
The top half of the draw is dominated by #1 seed Rafa Nadal. Perhaps the only two names that might concern Nadal in his half are Juan Martin del Potro and Denis Shapovalov. For Nadal, it should be a cakewalk to the final and whomever he plays there will have logged many more minutes and even hours on court.
Finals Predictions:
Pliskova v. Svitolina; Svitolina wins in 3 long grueling sets;
Nadal v. Zverev; Nadal wins in 3 workman-like sets
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