DACA And The Looming Government Shutdown

At this point, it seems pretty clear that both Trump and the Republicans believe that they can use DACA and the budget deadline to hopefully cut into Democrats' current popularity with the voters. Basically, by refusing to make a deal on DACA by including funding for the border wall, Republicans are hoping that pressure from the Democratic base will force its members to vote against passing a budget without it by the end of this week. Then Republican will try to claim that Democrats have "forced" a government shutdown.

The fact that a judge ruled that the Trump administration must restart DACA and begin to accept renewal applications in addition to the fact that the program is not set to be terminated by Trump until March adds to the lack of urgency that Republicans feel to resolve the Dreamers' status.

Trump's tweet that "DACA is probably dead because the Democrats don't really want it, they just want to talk and take desperately needed money away from our Military" perfectly sets up what the Republican argument will be.

Democratic leaders, especially in the Senate, have been reluctant to openly express the option of or support for a government shutdown. Chuck Schumer has worried that Democrats would be blamed for the shutdown. That fear prompted Democrats not to force the issue and agree to short-term extension in December. But that position has become harder defend not only because of DACA but also because of CHIP.

A government shutdown would be a lose-lose proposition for both parties. But prior government shutdowns that have lasted more than just a weekend occurred when the President and one house of Congress were controlled by different parties. It is quite another proposition when one party controls both Congress and the White House. That's why Republican Senator Roy Blunt says, "I think it’s a loser for everybody, but it’s probably more of a loser if you’re in control."

Others in the Republican party may have a different opinion. Certainly, there are Republican members in the House who would love to show their hard right bona fides by blaming the Democrats for refusing to fund a border wall while protecting the Dreamers. And there is no doubt that Trump believes that would play well with his base.

Additionally, if a government shutdown is a lose-lose proposition, it is clear that Democrats have more to lose at this point simply because both Trump and the Republicans are already massively unpopular already.  If the Republicans can rally their base and knock a few points off Democrat's popularity, that will be a win for them.

So expect a government shutdown on Friday. Even if something passes Congress, Trump will probably veto it as a play to his base. The real question will then become how long the shutdown will last. My guess is that this will be just another weekend shutdown that will allow each side to play to their base. Then both sides will agree to another continuing resolution next Monday.