American tennis, especially on the men's side, has been in a prolonged slump for years. And if you exclude the Williams sisters, the same could be said on the women's side. But the second half of 2017 showed some signs of life. Sam Querrey had an excellent Wimbledon and US Open. Jack Sock won the Paris Masters, getting him into the tour final where he did some real damage. Sloane Stephens won an all-American US Open final against Madison Keys. Based on that, Americans came in to 2018 with high hopes.
But most of those hopes were dashed yesterday in one of the black days for American tennis. On the women's side, Venus Williams, Coco Vandeweghe, and the aforementioned Stephens all crashed out. Williams had a tough draw against an in-form Belinda Bencic, who has recovered from a series of injuries after her initial breakthrough a couple of years ago. So, in truth, that upset was just a mild surprise. Vandeweghe, on the other hand, looked tentative throughout the match in a shocking loss to Timea Babos. Neither Williams nor Vandeweghe won a set. Stephens hadn't won a match since her US Open victory and her hangover continued as she played a truly desultory third set to lose to Shuai Zhang.
The men fared no better. John Isner went down to 80th-ranked Australian Matthew Ebden in four sets. Isner shot selection was horrid and he looked sluggish throughout, getting broken twice in the final set. Jack Sock, who reportedly had a hip problem, played a similar match in also losing in four sets to Yuichi Sugita.
With Serena Williams not feeling fit enough to play after the near-fatal birth of her first child, the only American woman left in the draw with a serious chance of going deep is Shelby Rogers. On the men's side, Querrey is the only realistic hope left. Up and coming Francis Tiafoe might have gone a few rounds if he didn't have to face Djokovic in the first one. Such is the state of American tennis.
With that being said, who are the favorites? Without Serena, once again the women's draw is wide open. Current #1 Simona Halep will be looking to finally break through at a major, but I just don't think her game can stand up over two weeks. Caroline Wozniacki has rebuilt her game is now #2 but I feel she has the same issue as Halep - just too much retrieving over the course of two weeks. That leaves this tournament wide open for Garbine Muguruza to complete the third leg of the career Grand Slam. Her biggest challenge will come before the final when she has to face Karolina Pliskova.
Prediction: Muguruza beats Wozniacki in two.
Roger Federer is arguably coming into the Australian in top form, winning the Hopman Cup with the aforementioned Bencic. Unfortunately, he is in the bottom half of the draw, which is just packed with quality. Dominic Thiem, Djokovic, Alex Zverev, Tomas Berdych, and Juan Martin del Potro are all in his half. In the top half, Nadal will rule with his main threats probably being Dmitrov, Cilic, or injury. He should be able to handle all comers.
Prediction: The match everyone wants to see - Federer beats Nadal in five.
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