Has The Republican Collapse Just Begun

Donald Trump has pretty much thrown Republicans in Congress under the bus with his own lack of leadership combined with his own attacks on the GOP leadership. And now it appears that some of the most vulnerable Republicans in the House have had enough and may start stepping away entirely.

Republicans are already facing a daunting schedule for the rest of the year and September in particular. There will be emergency relief for Hurricane Harvey and probably also for Irma later in the month. The debt ceiling needs to be dealt with by the end of the month in order to avoid a potential and catastrophic default. The budget still needs to be passed in order to avoid a government shutdown. Trump, in his infinite incompetence, then decided to drop the DACA issue in Congress' lap as well, presumably as a bargaining chip to get funding for the border wall. And we haven't even talked about tax "reform" (i.e. cuts) and shoring up the ACA which is even a priority for some Republicans.

Trump has now agreed to a deal with Democratic Congressional leaders Schumer and Pelosi that will tie Hurricane Harvey relief to a 3 month extension of the debt ceiling and a 3 month continuing resolution on the budget. Republican leaders are apparently furious but are going along with it. Paul Ryan said earlier in the day that Harvey relief should be a clean vote and called linking it to the debt ceiling "playing politics". Having used the debt ceiling as an extortion tool against the Democrats and Obama for years, Republicans now want to get the debt ceiling off their plate for as long as possible. They were initially proposing an 18 month extension in order to get past the 2018 election. In a reversal, Democrats are now interested in making the GOP vote on raising the debt ceiling as many times as possible between now and next fall's election.

This deal simply postpones the inevitable deal-making that must be done until December. But it also gives Democrats even more leverage in the budget negotiations as their demands can be tied to the debt ceiling which requires 60 votes in the Senate. They will focus on DACA and shoring up the ACA. In return, Trump will want something he can point to in increased border security that he can claim is a "wall". Conservative Republicans already see themselves as being frozen out of these discussions and fear that they will not be able to cut spending as is their wont. This will put even more pressure on Ryan as his caucus will be furious at another GOP cave and the fact that another deal was cut with the Democrats. Lastly, the deal also complicates efforts to move forward with tax reform.

Everyone has been waiting for the Trump "pivot", and it looks like that time has come. Except his pivot seems to be working with Democrats and throwing Republicans under the bus in order to get his cherished border wall. And, at the same time, he sticks it to Ryan and McConnell whom he blames for the repeal and replace fiasco and not moving forward with other parts of his agenda. Of course, he'll pivot right back as long as he thinks it's to his advantage.

It may be just a coincidence but Republican Representative Dave Reichert, a seven-term moderate from Seattle’s suburbs, has decided not to run again in 2018. Even though Reichert represented a district in which Trump only got 44% of the vote, he himself remained popular, winning over 60% of the vote last November. In addition, Democrats had at least eight candidates aiming to take his seat, which probably gave him an even better chance for re-election in Washington's top-two primary system. Instead, he has retired.

Reichert is now the fifth Republican Representative to simply retire, two of them in districts won by Clinton. In addition, four others have moved on to work in the Trump administration. And with Trump's unpopularity near all-time presidential lows and his constant plays to his base, such as ending DACA, further eroding moderate support, the prospects for vulnerable Republicans in 2018 do not look great. The party expects even more retirements as the preparation for the primary season heats up early next year.

It probably too soon to say definitively, but this might be the Republican version of what happened to Blue Dog Democrats. They just disappeared in the span of two elections, 2010 and 2012. The next two election cycles may see the death of the Tuesday Group, that small cabal of supposedly moderate Republicans. That would leave the party with even fewer moderating influences and Congress even more polarized than ever.