Catalan Independence And The Revival Of City-States

I was having dinner with an English friend last week and, in addition to discussing the Tories internal confusion and sclerosis about how to move along with Brexit, he also pointed at the Catalonian independence referendum in Spain. Now, Catalan separatism goes back to the 1800s and, like the Basques, it is based on the area's own unique culture and heritage apart from Spain as a whole. The movement gained steam after the death of Franco and the emergence of democracy in Spain. Catalonia gained some autonomy in 1979 and even more in a 2006 statute, parts of which were ruled unconstitutional in 2010 after a four year legal battle. That ruling is what prompted the independence referendum scheduled for October 1, a referendum that the Spanish government considers illegal and is actively and ill-advisedly trying to suppress.

In the wake of the financial crisis, economic issues became a more powerful driver for Catalan independence, as much as history, heritage, and a desire for greater autonomy. Barcelona and its environs account for a significant portion of Spain's economy, about 20% of Spanish GDP in 2013, and Catalans have been increasingly unhappy with essentially subsidizing the rest of the country. That was exacerbated in 2012 when the Spanish government rejected a plan to negotiate Catalonia's demand for a better fiscal agreement for the region.

Interestingly, my English friend pointed to Catalonia and Barcelona as an example for London, noting that, compared to the rest of England, the city overwhelmingly supports remaining in the EU. Like Catalonia, London accounts for a significant portion of UK GDP, 22% in 2015 according to estimates. While London is nowhere near as close as Catalonia to actually trying to gain independence, the demand for either greater autonomy or secession has gotten some traction in the wake of the Brexit vote.

If anything the Brexit vote has taught us, it is that separation is an incredibly complex and fraught issue that will be far more complicated than any independence referendum indicates. Catalonia, at least, has had its own regional culture for centuries. London, on the other hand, is the capital of England. Independence for London will be messy and ugly and is still a long, long way off. But there is no doubt that demands for greater London autonomy will grow as will the desire to keep more of the city's taxes working in the city as opposed to the rest of the UK.

However, I do think that the push for Catalan independence and even the discussion of London's secession indicates the increasing urban/rural divide in the West in particular, indicated by the growing economic power of cities at the same time rural areas decline. Regardless of whether they are strictly independent, these urban economic powerhouses will probably have to be given far greater autonomy than they have today. And that will probably be true here in the US as well, as states will have more and more trouble restricting the local city governments as Republicans have done with, say, Cleveland regarding the minimum wage. More likely is the situation we saw in Seattle where the city was left to its own devices on raising the minimum wage.

In some ways, we may perhaps be seeing the beginning of a revival of a modern version of a city-state as a reflection of that increasing urban/rural divide. Obviously, this can and will only apply to a handful of mega-cities, especially ones that create a significant portion of a state's or country's GDP. And, while all of them will not become independent, they are all more likely to become more autonomous and less generous with the economic wealth they generate.