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    Monday, June 20, 2016

    Trump Campaign Disarray Making Down-Ballot Republicans Very Nervous

    I've done my best to avoid blogging about the daily atrocities committed by Donald Trump - I will leave that to others that have much more patience than I. But the complete disarray inside the Trump campaign appears to be staggering.  Other than the Donald's use of free media, there seems to no organization or even an attempt at organization in his campaign at all.

    Last week, a Trump rally in Irving, Texas had to be postponed for a few days because the Trump campaign apparently did not ask the Irving police for a permit until the day before the scheduled rally.  The police rejected the request saying they needed at least 48 hours to prepare for such an event. On Friday, the AP reported that the Trump campaign only had 30 paid staffers on the ground across the entire country - that is not even one for each state.  Of course, the Trump campaign says a nationwide campaign infrastructure is unnecessary. Trump senior aide Karen Giorno simply states, "It would be disingenuous and wrongheaded to take a playbook that has been used over and over again. We are creating the playbook". Relying on the Republican National Committee to handle his ground campaign has some significant risks for both Trump and Republicans.  Trump's presidential campaign will be sucking valuable resources away from down-ballot Republicans. And, if it appears that Trump will be a sure loser later this fall, the RNC will simply focus all its efforts on saving the electoral hopes of as many Republicans as they can, leaving the Trump campaign high and dry. Already, even in the red state of Utah, the state chair James Evans is pondering throwing Trump under the bus and saving as many local GOPers as he can.

    And finally today, Trump's trusted but caustic campaign adviser Corey Lewandowsi was essentially forced to resign. Apparently, the internal battle between Lewandowski and recently hired campaign consultant Paul Manafort has been epic but, with Lewandoswki out, Manafort should now be able to take full control. But the problem may not be so much to do with the internal dynamics of the campaign but with the candidate himself.  Manafort has a few weeks to bring some coherence to the Trump campaign before the July convention. If he cannot, the cries to dump Trump at the convention will grow louder and louder. Initially, I didn't think that a convention revolt would be possible but we all know how shortsighted and reactionary political operatives can be. With Trump's campaign apparatus virtually non-existent and a total disaster, you can sense a building sense of panic among the rank-and-file GOP establishment. If Manafort can not reasonably reassure them of some cohesion in the campaign before the convention, it could be a wild time in Cleveland in July.

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