Trump Determined To Break Up NATO And EU, Create A Nationalist Right Alliance

Donald Trump's latest diatribe against the EU and NATO must have put a shudder through European leaders, especially those in the exposed Baltic states. In an interview with the German paper Bild, Trump said that NATO was "obsolete, first because it was designed many, many years ago. Secondly, countries aren’t paying what they should." He declared that only five NATO members are actually paying their fair share. He added that the EU is "is basically a vehicle for Germany" and the Britain was right to leave the Union, saying it would "end up being a great thing" and adding "If you ask me, more countries will leave." He went on to attack Angela Merkel for her immigration policies and threatened to impose tariffs on BMW cars unless they move a planned plant from Mexico to the US, probably a violation of WTO rules. Finally, he floated the idea of lifting sanctions on Russia in return for some kind of nuclear arms agreement or that "something can happen that a lot of people are going to benefit.”

Of course, Trump's comments about NATO are in direct opposition to what his nominee for Secretary of Defense, James Mattis, affirmed in his confirmation hearings where he declared 100% support for NATO and its benefit to the US, saying it "facilitates European stability and as a military alliance it helps sustain our values." Needless to say, this kind of dissonance within the incoming administration makes our allies uncomfortable.  But it is also typical of the serially abusive nature of Trump. He is purposeful on making sure whoever he is dealing with feels the discomfort he willfully creates. It is also incredibly dangerous as it raises the odds of some party making an horrendous miscalculation because of the administration's contradictory positions, a miscalculation that could end up in a European war. If Russia invades the Baltics and Trump issues orders not to abide by the common defense mechanism by invoking Article 5 of the treaty, it will be interesting to see how the military, the cabinet, and Republicans in general react. It will truly be a choice between patriotism and the chain of command. Based on what we have seen from Republicans so far with regard to Trump, we should not be heartened.

Trump promised to complete a trade deal with the UK as soon as he possibly, could, claiming it would be "[g]ood for both sides." As Josh Marshall points out, this is part of the Trump/Bannon strategy to destroy both NATO and the EU. The theory on a trade deal with Britain is that it will strengthen the UK's hand in negotiations with Europe and encourage other EU countries to also leave the Union. Based on the reaction of European leaders today, it appears that Trump's comments may actually strengthen the EU.

There are three upcoming elections in Europe that will be important in determining the EU's future - the Netherlands, France, and Germany. Under Bannon's guidance. it is clear that Trump will be supporting the nationalist right in all three elections. Bannon has already expressed admiration for the NVV in Netherlands, the National Front in France, and AfD in Germany. Nigel Farage, the former leader of the UKIP, the nationalist right party in Britain, is now an important Trump advisor on European issues. And Trump's attacks on Merkel yesterday will be just the beginning of his administration's support for these parties. Marine Le Pen was visiting Trump in New York just last week.

It appears that Trump is truly looking to create a New World Order with an alliance of nationalist right powers consisting of Russia, Germany, France, Britain, and the US. This would, of course, be the end of the EU and NATO and the smaller countries in Europe would have to decide whether to go it alone or play ball with this new alliance. The real question is will Americans go along with Trump's new world. We may find out sooner than any of us care to think.