Britain's Supreme Court Ruling Will Complicate And Possibly Delay Article 50 Invocation

Yesterday, Britain's Supreme Court ruled in an 8-3 decision that Parliament must vote to invoke Article 50 and begin the arduous task of negotiating the UK's exit from the EU. In addition, the Court unanimously decided that the devolved parliaments of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland did not have veto power over the Article 50 decision.

This decision somewhat complicates things for Theresa May, but it will probably just delay the inevitable invocation of Article 50. May promised to have a very targeted bill ready for Parliament perhaps as early as next week. At that point the games will begin. With the SNP clearly intending to vote against the bill and the Liberal Democrats also threatening to do the same unless Parliament gets to also vote on the final deal, the pressure will be on Labour to join them or not. While many Labour MPs may privately want to vote no, the constituents that many of them represent were clear supporters of the Brexit referendum. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said the party would not "frustrate the process" but would introduce amendments to the bill "to prevent the Conservative from using Brexit to turn Britian into a bargain basement tax haven off the coast of Europe. Labour will seek to build in the principles of full, tariff-free access to the single market and maintenance of worker's rights and social and environmental protections". The SNP will probably be joining in these amendments as they have promised to submit fifty amendments to slow the process down. It also remains to be seen whether Conservatives who are nervous about a hard Brexit will also try to introduce amendments so that Parliament has more control over the details of the negotiations. In summary, it is clear that Parliament will eventually vote to invoke Article 50. The question is what additional oversight or restrictions Parliament will attach to that bill that will hinder May's free hand in negotiating with the EU, a negotiation where the EU already clearly has the upper hand.

This ruling also brings the UK one step closer to dissolution, increasing the chances that Scotland and Northern Ireland will leave. Nicola Sturgeon declared that this Court decision increases the likelihood of another referendum on Scottish independence and said that the promises made to Scotland about devolution "were not worth the paper they were written on". She continued, "It’s becoming clearer by the day that Scotland’s voice is simply not being heard or listened to within the U.K." In Northern Ireland, where the coalition government is still under pressure following Arlene Foster's survival of a "no confidence" vote in December, Gerry Adams said, "Brexit will undermine the institutional, constitutional and legal integrity of the Good Friday Agreement. Our stability and economic progress are regarded as collateral damage." The Court's decision not to allow the Northern Irish Parliament to vote has the potential to reignite the destructive sectarian divide.

The Court's decisions will just make the UK's exit from Europe more complicated but will still not derail Britain's to disaster.