World War I As A Lesson For Recognizing The Dangers Today

The assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Turkey prompted Josh Marshall over at TPM to think of the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo which is widely recognized as the event that set off World War I. The history of that war which I grew up with was that the European powers blundered into war due to the various alliances that the major and minor powers had with each other. It was a war that the Europeans did not want but somehow did not manage to avoid. That was a comforting and instructive thought in the emerging nuclear age and the precariousness of the Cold War. The lesson was that better diplomacy and more open lines of communication could prevent an unintended conflict from spiraling into nuclear Armageddon. And that lesson seemed to be born out with the resolution of the Cuban missile crisis.

Unfortunately, that history is entirely incorrect. In fact, there was clear evidence back in the post World War II era which has been bolstered by more recent research that the European powers fully anticipated a coming war and that Germany was intent on instigating it. According to Marshall, "[The German government and general staff believed that a European war would eventually come, that such a war was essential to its territorial ambitions and - most importantly - that time was not on Germany's side. The Germans believed they were better prepared for war in 1914 that the Entente powers of Britain, France, and Russia. But over time they believed their position would weaken." This was largely due to the serious decline in Germany's biggest ally, Austria-Hungary.

Marshall draws the lesson that there is "immense danger when one power believes it is running out of time to secure the advantages it believes it can secure...". And, although Marshall does not draw this specific comparison, I believe that is the situation that faces us with the current makeup and attitude of the Republican party. This is a party that sees the rapidly changing demographic shifts taking place in our country and, because of that, believes its power will only be diminishing over the near term. We can see it in the fundamentally undemocratic actions of Republicans in North Carolina who did everything in their power to suppress votes, restrict the powers of the incoming Democratic governor in a post-election special session, and have now reneged on a deal with the city of Charlotte over LBGTQ rights. (After this disgrace, we should force companies to continue the boycott of the state for a period of time even after they change the law.) We see it the increasingly undemocratic actions of the national party, from government shutdowns to the refusal to give Merrick Garland a hearing.

Republicans know they will never have more power than in the next two to four years. With the 2020 census and mandatory redistricting, their power will become even more fragile and even more extreme gerrymandering will be required to keep their majority. Under these conditions, we can only expect the worst.  World War I resulted in about 17 million deaths and 20 million wounded. The next four years will thankfully not be as bad as that. But make no mistake, they will still be terrible.