Trump Seems Intent On Helping To Break Up The EU

Thanks to Josh Marshall for pointing this out but Trump has a plan to help break up the EU. According to reports, Trump is planning to work out a letter of interest and intent regarding a trade deal with the UK as part of the new administration's first 200 days. This desire was part of the reason why Trump was pushing to get his pal Nigel Farage appointed British Ambassador to Washington, causing another minor diplomatic tiff with one of our allies. Of course, as long as it is part of the EU, Britain is forbidden from negotiating separate trade deals. In addition, the Transatlantic Trade and Investors Partnership (TTIP), a massive new trade deal between the US and EU is still being discussed but Trump has already signaled his opposition to that deal and EU officials have come to accept that reality.

Trump and the UK seem to feel that seeing a potential US-UK trade deal will put the UK in a better bargaining position with Europe. I'm not sure I follow the logic of that. It would seem that the Europeans would be more than a little pissed off that Trump has not only deep-sixed the trade deal with EU but that he is also interfering with the Brexit negotiations on the side of the UK. How that will make the Europeans more predisposed in their negotiations with the Britain is beyond me. Even if the Europeans do end up allowing the UK access to their common market, I'm not sure that they could restrict Britain from negotiating a separate trade deal with the US or that Britain would accept that restriction. So it is hard to see that this does anything but make the Brexit negotiations even more difficult and contentious. In addition, Trump has also indicated a desire to make individual trade deals with Germany and France, again in total contravention to the structure of the EU.

A memo that CNN has revealed shows that Trump wants to withdraw from NAFTA and "replace" that with a trade deal that would include Canada and the UK. I guess this is an attempt to restore the glory of the former British Empire, but it certainly will reduce the overall amount of trade American engages in considerably, especially when you factor in the transportation costs to and from the UK. I'm also guessing that there will be strong opposition from a large segment of US businesses to pulling out of Mexico and the cheap labor supply that it offers.

All these reports are not even solid proposals yet so it remains to be seen whether any of these ideas will really see the light of day. But Trump's bromance with Putin and his attacks on NATO have already unsettled our European allies. Interfering in the Brexit negotiations is likely to anger them even more.