Demographic Desperation Is What Makes Trump Presidency A Threat To Democracy

The New York Times Op-Ed page today has a couple of pieces devoted to exploring the unique danger that Donald Trump poses to American democracy. Charles Blow gives us the blow-by-blow on the specific dangers that Trump presents - the Russian hacking, Trump's foreign conflicts of interests, especially with Russia, and the possibility Trump may be "Moscow's mule"; Trump's selection of "a rogue’s gallery of white supremacy sympathizers, anti-Muslim extremists, devout conspiracy theorists, anti-science doctrinaires and climate-change denier"; and that Trump is an "unstable, unqualified, undignified demagogue".

Paul Krugman pursues a different tack, looking at the fall of the Roman Empire and how institutions can fail us. Krugman says, "Republican institutions don’t protect against tyranny when powerful people start defying political norms. And tyranny, when it comes, can flourish even while maintaining a republican façade". He continues, "Famously, on paper the transformation of Rome from republic to empire never happened. Officially, imperial Rome was still ruled by a Senate that just happened to defer to the emperor, whose title originally just meant “commander,” on everything that mattered. We may not go down exactly the same route — although are we even sure of that? — but the process of destroying democratic substance while preserving forms is already underway". He points to what just happened in North Carolina and we could add Merrick Garland, the abuse of the filibuster, and many others.  Krugman makes no bones about where the breakdown of democracy is occurring, saying, "My question, instead, is why one party’s politicians and officials no longer seem to care about what we used to think were essential American values. And let’s be clear: This is a Republican story, not a case of 'both sides do it'."

Although Krugman touches on it, I think neither he nor Blow understands that the real danger is much greater than they imagine and it lies with the outlook that the Republican party has on the future. I wrote about this in an earlier post, saying, "[T]hat is what makes the coming Trump administration so incredibly dangerous. The Republican party realizes that this may be its last chance to roll back the elements of the New Deal that they have been fighting for nearly three-quarters of a century. There is no chance of compromise because the party will only be weaker as time moves on. There is no chance for moderation because their supporters are angry and have no willingness to moderate. Any sign of weakness will be met by a challenge from even further to the right. There is a reason there are so few, if any, 'reasonable Republicans' left, especially among those with elected positions. And, with time running out, their supporters filled with rage, and at the full height of their powers, the mantra of the party has really become 'by any means necessary'."

David Atkins, over at Political Animal, has done a much more succinct and incisive piece on exactly the phenomenon that I was trying to describe above. According to Atkins, "Republicans have significant advantages due mostly to gerrymandered districts and political segregation, but it will be much harder for Republicans to maintain those district advantages after the 2020 census–especially if Democrats retake governorships and legislatures in an anti-Trump wave. They know their time is limited. The Trump phenomenon itself can be seen in many ways as a temporarily successful Hail Mary pass by a conservative base that sees its vision of America collapsing in front of its eyes." He also points to what is happening in North Carolina and notes, "parties that expect to regain power once they have lost it don’t typically behave this way, because they know that bad behavior can become a precedent used against them that will make it difficult for them to govern when they return to power. The Republican strategy here only makes sense if they expect never to regain power once they have lost it." And he concludes by saying, "That’s what makes the current incarnation of the Republican Party so dangerous. They have total control now, but they know their time is limited if elections remain fair. They’re reduced to the apartheid calculus: either implement authoritarian control, or watch everything they have worked for disappear in four to eight years, perhaps forever." Please read the whole piece as it brings into stark relief the contempt for democracy that Republicans have shown over the last couple of decades and the reasons why, from a Republican point of view, it reflects a "sensible" strategy that will only get worse in the years ahead.

It is far easier to imagine the Democratic party crafting a message that will appeal to white working class voters than it is to imagine the Republican party crafting a message to woo Hispanic and African American voters, especially in the aftermath of the Trump campaign and this election. If we ignore the demographic desperation that the Republican party feels and the fear it engenders, we will constantly underestimate their desire and ability to destroy American democracy in order to maintain their power. We have let it happen for far too long already.