Paul Ryan is probably nervous enough already about having to ram through a stop-gap spending bill before the government shuts down on Friday night. He will have to jawbone certain GOP members to support whatever comes out of the Senate in order to pass the continuing resolution without relying on Democratic support, a move that cost John Boehner the job Ryan has now. And with the Senate unable to pass a bill without funding for the Flint water crisis due to Democratic objections, Ryan decided he needed to do something to move things along. The Senate had already passed a water resource bill by a vote of 94-3 that included $220 million in funding for Flint but Democrats had no assurance that the money would actually be allocated when the bill went into conference with the House. Ryan, in an agreement with Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, will try to ease that concern by agreeing to a vote in the House that would add an amendment to the water bill allocating $170 million for Flint. This would guarantee that at least that amount would be available for Flint in the bill that comes out of the conference committee.
If this amendment passes, it removes one of the last major roadblocks in getting the government funded beyond Friday night. But there are still a few dissenters, even Republicans like Lindsey Graham, who may need to be assuaged in order to pass a bill in the Senate. Even more unclear is how many Republicans in the House, who hate the idea of a continuing resolution that would allow a gigantic budget compromise bill to be passed in the upcoming lame-duck session, will object. That is Ryan's nightmare as he will be desperate not to have to rely on Democrats to pass the stop-gap bill.
A majority of both Republicans and Democrats do not want a government shutdown and just want to get back to their states and districts in order to campaign. But Democrats believe that the GOP will be blamed for any shutdown as they control both houses of Congress. That allows Democrats in the Senate, where the minority has great power, to play a little hardball. In the House, there is a group of around 40-60 Republicans who can do the same. Ryan will essentially be calling their bluff to see if those GOP members really want to be responsible for shutting the government down. If they do, then his only choice is to turn to Democrats to pass the bill. I truly doubt it will come to that but you never know.
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