Trump, GOP Leaving 2018 Election Open To Another Attack

The 2018 election is shaping up to be one of the most important elections in recent history. That probably get said by one side or the other for nearly every election, but this time it certainly rings true not only for Democrats but also for those who still value our democracy. Unfortunately, and seemingly purposefully, the Trump administration and the Republicans in Congress appear to have no interest in protecting the 2018 election from the same type of attack by foreign powers as occurred in 2016.

Based on the successful Russian attack in 2016 and the lack of any real response from the Trump administration, I think we can safely surmise that other foreign powers, both friend and foe, might also be willing to attack the 2018 election in order to produce a result that might favor them. Admittedly, it is probably more difficult to effect off-year elections for the House and Senate than a nationwide Presidential campaign, but the Russians showed that they could target specific swing voters very accurately. Whether they relied on data provided by the Trump campaign and/or Cambridge Analytica remains to be seen. If they did not, then it certainly stands to reason that other countries have that capability as well.

With so many chairs of Congressional committees actually retiring this year, it wouldn't be hard for any foreign country to identify just one particular candidate to support who would probably become the new chair of some committee of interest to that foreign power. In addition, both China and Russia might actually be interested in seeing Democrats take over the House, knowing that the subsequent Democratic hearings with subpoena power on the various crimes committed by Trump, both currently and in the past, ranging from his money laundering to collusion with Russia to obstruction of justice to violations of the Emoluments Clause, would further weaken Trump and leave the world stage even more open to Chinese and Russian advances.

In the face of these ongoing and potential attacks, Trump, of course, does nothing. In fact, National Security Director Mike Rogers testified yesterday that "I believe that President Putin has clearly come to the conclusion that there’s little price to pay here…and that therefore I [Putin] can continue this activity." He added that he has received no specific authority from the President to "punish" the Russians and could not do so without that Presidential directive.  Senator Jack Reed summarized the situation thusly, "[E]ssentially, we have not taken on the Russians yet. We’re watching them intrude in our elections, spread misinformation, become more sophisticated, try to achieve strategic objectives that you have recognized, and we’re just, essentially, sitting back and waiting."

Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan, as they did in the fall of 2016, also continue to refuse to defend our democracy from foreign attack. In fact, Paul Ryan just removed the head of the Election Assistance Commission, the agency tasked with helping states protect their electoral systems from hacking. Not only did Ryan not allow Matthew Masterson to remain as chairman of the commission, by not re-nominating him Masterson cannot continue with the commission in any capacity. Masterson, a Republican from Ohio, has won praise from both Democrats and Republicans not only for his even-handed approach as chairman but also for his expertise in election systems security. As the election security expert at the Center for Democracy & Technology said, "This is insanity. Matt is extremely capable and has been a champion of more secure and better elections the entire time he's been on the EAC." That view was echoed by state Secretaries of State around the country.

Masterson's departure leaves the four-member commission with just two members, one Republican and one Democrat. The remaining Republican member has already indicated skepticism of the need for election security, saying, "Using intelligence agencies and reports that are full of allegations … to justify the extraordinary and invasive action of declaring the states’ election infrastructure as critical infrastructure subject to federal oversight is outrageous and wrong." If Ryan appoints a new chairman with similar views, the commission will effectively become useless, which is an outcome that Republicans have been seeking for years, and our election systems will remain vulnerable to attack.

Despite the views of that one particular Republican member, NBC has reported that there is "substantial evidence that state websites or voter registration systems in seven states were compromised by Russian-backed covert operatives prior to the 2016 election." Of the seven states, three were swing states, Arizona, Florida, and Wisconsin. According to the report, "seven states were compromised in a variety of ways, with some breaches more serious than others, from entry into state websites to penetration of actual voter registration databases." While officials in both the Obama and Trump administration declare that no votes were changed and no voters were taken off the rolls, that denial does not specifically preclude voters on the rolls having their data changed, effectively making it harder or even impossible to vote.

We already know that the Russians tried to penetrate the election systems of at least 21 states. Only last month, the head of cybersecurity at DHS declared that, of those states, "an exceptionally small number were actually successfully penetrated." Assuming the NBC report is correct, I would say that 33% of the targeted states is not an "exceptionally small number" and raising the question of why the DHS would understate the actual problem.

Republicans say they will run against Nancy Pelosi in 2018, despite the fact that she currently has absolutely no power in the House today or since 2012. Meanwhile, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell not only refuse to defend our democracy from attack but also seemingly actively undertake steps to prevent us from defending ourselves. That should be the Democrats' retort to every attack on Pelosi and a featured attack ad on the Republicans in general.

Meanwhile, it appears that the electoral process will still be open to manipulation by foreign governments (and we haven't even talked about the pathetic response from the tech companies). We have already seen that Mexico, Israel, China, and the UAE, not to mention the Russians, have attempted to exploit Jared Kushner's business problems and inexperience to influence US policy. Two of these are out putative allies. When our enemies see our electoral process open to exploitation and a government in power unwilling to defend it, you can be sure we will be attacked.