US Carbon Emissions Drop To Levels Last Seen In 1993

The US Energy Information Agency released its updated data on US carbon emissions for 2016 this week and the news was surprisingly good. Energy related carbon emissions dropped to 5,170 million metric tons (MMmt), a level not seen in this country since before 1993. Carbon emissions dropped by 89 MMmt, or 1.7%, in 2016 alone and emissions have decreased in six of the last nine years since the start of the financial crisis.

The collapse of coal-generated electricity continues with coal's contribution to carbon emissions falling by over one third from 2007 to 2016. As coal has declined, natural gas has now overtaken it as the second leading driver of energy related carbon emission after petroleum and other carbon-based liquids. The use of natural gas and non-fossil fuel (nuclear, hydroelectric, renewables, etc.) have both overtaken coal as fuels for electricity generation.

When it comes to non-fossil fuel electricity generation, nuclear is still the dominant technology. But for the first time renewables such as wind and solar have surpassed hydroelectric as the second leading non-fossil fuel. Renewables have grown from just a 2% share of non-fossil electricity generation to 20% in the last decade alone.

2016 also saw some important firsts for renewable energy. It was another record-breaking year for adding solar capacity, 14 gigawatts, and that doubled the levels from 2015 which itself was a record-breaking year. For the first time in US history, wind and solar accounted for 10% of all electricity generation in a single month and it happened twice in March and April. And, at times, in areas like California and, yes, Texas, renewables provided more than 50% of the total electricity demand.

We will have to wait another year to gauge the negative impact the Trump administration will have on our carbon footprint. Needless to say, all the unnecessary private jet travel will not help. More seriously, however, is Trump's threat to slap tariffs on Chinese solar panels. That would increase panel prices dramatically and, according to the Solar Energy Industry Association, cause the loss of around 90,000 jobs in the industry. 2017 will also be a test to see whether the Trump administration's roll back of Obama-era restrictions on the coal industry will do anything to revive the industry or whether the economics are now such that natural gas and renewables are cheaper no matter what and coal really is no longer practical for energy generation. 2016 will be a benchmark for judging just how bad the Trump administration will be when it comes to global warming.