Sturgeon Puts May On Hot Seat With Demand For New Scottish Referendum

Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, has thrown another spanner in the works as Theresa May tries to ram through a "hard" Brexit from the European Union. Essentially Sturgeon is demanding another Scottish referendum on independence once the terms of May's Brexit deal become known but before they are finalized into law.

In a statement today, Sturgeon said, "If Scotland is to have a real choice - when the terms of Brexit are known but before it is too late to choose our own course - then that choice must be offered between the autumn of next year, 2018, and the spring of 2019." Scotland voted to remain in the EU in the Brexit vote and May's hardline stance threatening the UK's access to Europe's single market could be devastating for the Scottish economy. According to Sturgeon, "If the UK leaves the EU without Scotland indicating beforehand - or at least within a short time after it - that we want a different relationship with Europe, we could face a lengthy period not just outside the EU but also the single market."

The decision whether to hold another independence referendum actually depends entirely on the UK Parliament in London, which is dominated by the Conservative government. Allowing the vote to go forward will create even more chaos and confusion to the whole Brexit negotiation and execution. As May observes, "Another referendum would be divisive and cause huge economic uncertainty at the worst possible time." Indeed it would. But not allowing another independence referendum could create a constitutional crisis that might spill over to Northern Ireland as well and May can not afford that either as she negotiates with Europe.

May is essentially left with only bad options - allow the vote and live with the chaos, ignore Sturgeon's call for the referendum and risk a constitutional crisis, or somehow bring Sturgeon into the Brexit negotiations and hope there will be some compromise position they can agree on. The first two are unpalatable and May has seemingly ruled out the third in pursuit of a hard exit.

The Conservatives political opportunism is finally catching up to them. Cameron's promise of the first Scottish independence referendum basically destroyed the Labor party in their base of Scotland as the party sided with Scotland remaining in the UK and helped create the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP). That move essentially destroyed the Labor party as an effective opposition in the UK Parliament. And Cameron's promise of the Brexit referendum was intended to protect Conservatives from the threat of UKIP and silence the Tory economic nationalists and racists in Parliament. That gamble went horribly wrong and Theresa May is living with the consequences. The result down the road may very well end up with the Tories and the UKIP nationalists fighting over control of a shrinking country comprised of just England and Wales.