France Will Fall To Right Wing Populists And Germany May Not Be Far Behind

Way back in May, even before the vote on Brexit, I posted that this seemed like a year where revolutionary change driven by an almost global sea of discontent would sweep the world. And, with Brexit and the election of the charlatan Donald Trump, it appears that is so. And now it looks like France will be the next country that will fall to xenophobic, right-wing nationalism. Over the weekend in France, the first round for the election of the center-right candidate produced another surprise winner, Francois Fillon. Fillon, who had long been languishing in third place behind the second place finisher Alain Juppe and Nicolas Sarkozy, pulled off a surprisingly strong victory. Fillon finished with 44%, Juppe at 28%, and Sarkozy at 21%. Sarkozy has now been eliminated and Juppe and Fillon will battle in a second round to determine who will represent the center-right in France's Presidential election next year. The disastrous administration of Francois Hollande has thoroughly discredited the Socialists and, as a result, the left will not even be a factor in the upcoming election. That will leave the winner of the runoff to face Marine Le Pen, the leader of the xenophobic, anti-EU, nationalist National Front party for France's President.

Juppe represents more of an establishment candidate, with a centrist, inclusive, and integrationist message. Fillon, on the other hand, wooed the same more right-wing voters as Sarkozy. Fillon promised to expand the number of prisons, create an anti-terrorism judicial unit, and strip French citizenship from those participating in jihad. Considering that France is already working under a state of emergency that is still in place from the attacks in Paris, Fillon is promising an even more aggressive and repressive approach. On the economic front, Fillon promises to eliminate over half a million public sector jobs, eliminate the 35 hour work week, and introduce the ever popular "structural reforms" that will reduce the burdens on business. Internationally, he also is looking to improve relations with Russia and Vladimir Putin.

Sarkozy has already thrown his support behind Fillon whose policies largely resembled his own, making Fillon the prohibitive favorite in the runoff. Assuming Fillon prevails, the choice for France would then be between Fillon and Le Pen. As Le Pen has already pointed out, Fillon's won largely on the themes that have driven the popularity of the National Front - French identity, a crackdown on immigration, law and order, and a reset of France's role in Europe. The election would then seem to come down between a choice between the National Front and Fillon's version of almost a National Front lite. Along with Fillon's distinct lack of charisma, it is hard to see how Marine Le Pen will not become the next President of France.

Meanwhile, in Germany, Angela Merkel has agreed to run for a fourth term as Chancellor in national elections later next year. Merkel, who is now regarded as one of the last bastions of traditional Western liberalism, will have a real challenge to win another term. There will be the usual challenge from the left but Merkel's most powerful opposition will come from the right wing Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) party. AfD has pulled off a number of surprisingly strong results in recent regional and local elections, putting into doubt whether Merkel would even run for re-election. AfD is another populist, anti-immigrant party and it now has seats in 10 of Germany's 16 regional parliaments. Merkel has been Chancellor for the last 11 years and leads the current centrist, coalition government. But that government has no natural successors. As one member of Merkel's CDU party pointed out, the upcoming elections will be very difficult to win but virtually impossible if Merkel was not running. It is clear that AfD will gain even more seats and will become a force in shaping whatever governing coalition emerges from the upcoming elections.

European leaders are finally coming to grips with the fact that the European experiment is in danger of collapsing. Last week, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls declared, "Europe is in danger of falling apart." But the current European leaders have only themselves to blame for the current situation. Not only do they have to deal with the rising wave of nationalism that is apparently sweeping the world but they have also been unable to confront the problems confronting the structural problems that have long plagued the European Union. The straight-jacket of the Euro and the continued emphasis on self-destructive austerity has just fed into the rise of xenophobia and right-wing nationalism. Just as in the US and Britain, the failure of the economic elites to deal with the fallout of globalization, technological disruption, and the declining standard of living for the have-nots has created the perfect breeding ground for the rise of populist nationalism. It represents the complete failure of the neo-liberal order of the last 25 or 30 years. And we will all suffer terribly for their total failure.