Trump Gives Another Campaign Speech Tonight

Sorry, I just can't bring myself to do it but others have more courage than I if you want to just live blog it. Here are Trump's prepared remarks for tonight. Besides reiterating his infrastructure plan, it's pretty much all stuff we have heard before. There are lots of promises about all the things he will do with absolutely zero details about how it will all be paid for. I think he really believes that he can just keep giving campaign speeches and everything will be fine. Anyway, here's the transcript:

    Mr. Speaker, Mr. Vice President, Members of Congress, the First Lady of the United States, and Citizens of America:

     Tonight, as we mark the conclusion of our celebration of Black History Month, we are reminded of our Nation's path toward civil rights and the work that still remains.  Recent threats targeting Jewish Community Centers and vandalism of Jewish cemeteries, as well as last week's shooting in Kansas City, remind us that while we may be a Nation divided on policies, we are a country that stands united in condemning hate and evil in all its forms.

    Each American generation passes the torch of truth, liberty and justice –- in an unbroken chain all the way down to the present.

    That torch is now in our hands.  And we will use it to light up the world.  I am here tonight to deliver a message of unity and strength, and it is a message deeply delivered from my heart.

    A new chapter of American Greatness is now beginning.

    A new national pride is sweeping across our Nation.

    And a new surge of optimism is placing impossible dreams firmly within our grasp.

    What we are witnessing today is the Renewal of the American Spirit.

    Our allies will find that America is once again ready to lead.

    All the nations of the world -- friend or foe -- will find that America is strong, America is proud, and America is free.

     In 9 years, the United States will celebrate the 250th anniversary of our founding -- 250 years since the day we declared our Independence.

    It will be one of the great milestones in the history of the world.

    But what will America look like as we reach our 250th year? What kind of country will we leave for our children?

    I will not allow the mistakes of recent decades past to define the course of our future.

    For too long, we've watched our middle class shrink as we've exported our jobs and wealth to foreign countries.

    We've financed and built one global project after another, but ignored the fates of our children in the inner cities of Chicago, Baltimore, Detroit -- and so many other places throughout our land.

    We've defended the borders of other nations, while leaving our own borders wide open, for anyone to cross -- and for drugs to pour in at a now unprecedented rate.

    And we've spent trillions of dollars overseas, while our infrastructure at home has so badly crumbled.

    Then, in 2016, the earth shifted beneath our feet.  The rebellion started as a quiet protest, spoken by families of all colors and creeds -– families who just wanted a fair shot for their children, and a fair hearing for their concerns.

    But then the quiet voices became a loud chorus -- as thousands of citizens now spoke out together, from cities small and large, all across our country.

    Finally, the chorus became an earthquake – and the people turned out by the tens of millions, and they were all united by one very simple, but crucial demand, that America must put its own citizens first ... because only then, can we truly MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.

    Dying industries will come roaring back to life.  Heroic veterans will get the care they so desperately need.

    Our military will be given the resources its brave warriors so richly deserve.

    Crumbling infrastructure will be replaced with new roads, bridges, tunnels, airports and railways gleaming across our beautiful land.

    Our terrible drug epidemic will slow down and ultimately, stop.

    And our neglected inner cities will see a rebirth of hope, safety, and opportunity.

    Above all else, we will keep our promises to the American people.

    It's been a little over a month since my inauguration, and I want to take this moment to update the Nation on the progress I've made in keeping those promises.

    Since my election, Ford, Fiat-Chrysler, General Motors, Sprint, Softbank, Lockheed, Intel, Walmart, and many others, have announced that they will invest billions of dollars in the United States and will create tens of thousands of new American jobs.

    The stock market has gained almost three trillion dollars in value since the election on November 8th, a record.  We've saved taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars by bringing down the price of the fantastic new F-35 jet fighter, and will be saving billions more dollars on contracts all across our Government.  We have placed a hiring freeze on non-military and non-essential Federal workers.

    We have begun to drain the swamp of government corruption by imposing a 5 year ban on lobbying by executive branch officials –- and a lifetime ban on becoming lobbyists for a foreign government.

    We have undertaken a historic effort to massively reduce job‑crushing regulations, creating a deregulation task force inside of every Government agency; imposing a new rule which mandates that for every 1 new regulation, 2 old regulations must be eliminated; and stopping a regulation that threatens the future and livelihoods of our great coal miners.

    We have cleared the way for the construction of the Keystone and Dakota Access Pipelines -- thereby creating tens of thousands of jobs -- and I've issued a new directive that new American pipelines be made with American steel.

    We have withdrawn the United States from the job-killing Trans-Pacific Partnership.

    With the help of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, we have formed a Council with our neighbors in Canada to help ensure that women entrepreneurs have access to the networks, markets and capital they need to start a business and live out their financial dreams.

    To protect our citizens, I have directed the Department of Justice to form a Task Force on Reducing Violent Crime.

    I have further ordered the Departments of Homeland Security and Justice, along with the Department of State and the Director of National Intelligence, to coordinate an aggressive strategy to dismantle the criminal cartels that have spread across our Nation.

    We will stop the drugs from pouring into our country and poisoning our youth -- and we will expand treatment for those who have become so badly addicted.

    At the same time, my Administration has answered the pleas of the American people for immigration enforcement and border security.  By finally enforcing our immigration laws, we will raise wages, help the unemployed, save billions of dollars, and make our communities safer for everyone.  We want all Americans to succeed –- but that can't happen in an environment of lawless chaos.  We must restore integrity and the rule of law to our borders.

    For that reason, we will soon begin the construction of a great wall along our southern border. It will be started ahead of schedule and, when finished, it will be a very effective weapon against drugs and crime.

    As we speak, we are removing gang members, drug dealers and criminals that threaten our communities and prey on our citizens.  Bad ones are going out as I speak tonight and as I have promised.

    To any in Congress who do not believe we should enforce our laws, I would ask you this question:  what would you say to the American family that loses their jobs, their income, or a loved one, because America refused to uphold its laws and defend its borders?

    Our obligation is to serve, protect, and defend the citizens of the United States.  We are also taking strong measures to protect our Nation from Radical Islamic Terrorism.

    According to data provided by the Department of Justice, the vast majority of individuals convicted for terrorism-related offenses since 9/11 came here from outside of our country.  We have seen the attacks at home -– from Boston to San Bernardino to the Pentagon and yes, even the World Trade Center.

    We have seen the attacks in France, in Belgium, in Germany and all over the world.

    It is not compassionate, but reckless, to allow uncontrolled entry from places where proper vetting cannot occur.  Those given the high honor of admission to the United States should support this country and love its people and its values.

    We cannot allow a beachhead of terrorism to form inside America -- we cannot allow our Nation to become a sanctuary for extremists.

    That is why my Administration has been working on improved vetting procedures, and we will shortly take new steps to keep our Nation safe -- and to keep out those who would do us harm.

    As promised, I directed the Department of Defense to develop a plan to demolish and destroy ISIS -- a network of lawless savages that have slaughtered Muslims and Christians, and men, women, and children of all faiths and beliefs.  We will work with our allies, including our friends and allies in the Muslim world, to extinguish this vile enemy from our planet.

    I have also imposed new sanctions on entities and individuals who support Iran's ballistic missile program, and reaffirmed our unbreakable alliance with the State of Israel.

    Finally, I have kept my promise to appoint a Justice to the United States Supreme Court -- from my list of 20 judges -- who will defend our Constitution.  I am honored to have Maureen Scalia with us in the gallery tonight.  Her late, great husband, Antonin Scalia, will forever be a symbol of American justice.  To fill his seat, we have chosen Judge Neil Gorsuch, a man of incredible skill, and deep devotion to the law.  He was confirmed unanimously to the Court of Appeals, and I am asking the Senate to swiftly approve his nomination.

     Tonight, as I outline the next steps we must take as a country, we must honestly acknowledge the circumstances we inherited.

    Ninety-four million Americans are out of the labor force.

    Over 43 million people are now living in poverty, and over 43 million Americans are on food stamps.

    More than 1 in 5 people in their prime working years are not working.

    We have the worst financial recovery in 65 years.

    In the last 8 years, the past Administration has put on more new debt than nearly all other Presidents combined.

    We've lost more than one-fourth of our manufacturing jobs since NAFTA was approved, and we've lost 60,000 factories since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.

    Our trade deficit in goods with the world last year was nearly $800 billion dollars.

    And overseas, we have inherited a series of tragic foreign policy disasters.

    Solving these, and so many other pressing problems, will require us to work past the differences of party.  It will require us to tap into the American spirit that has overcome every challenge throughout our long and storied history.

    But to accomplish our goals at home and abroad, we must restart the engine of the American economy -- making it easier for companies to do business in the United States, and much harder for companies to leave.

    Right now, American companies are taxed at one of the highest rates anywhere in the world.

    My economic team is developing historic tax reform that will reduce the tax rate on our companies so they can compete and thrive anywhere and with anyone.  At the same time, we will provide massive tax relief for the middle class.

    We must create a level playing field for American companies and workers.

    Currently, when we ship products out of America, many other countries make us pay very high tariffs and taxes -- but when foreign companies ship their products into America, we charge them almost nothing.

    I just met with officials and workers from a great American company, Harley-Davidson.  In fact, they proudly displayed five of their magnificent motorcycles, made in the USA, on the front lawn of the White House.

    At our meeting, I asked them, how are you doing, how is business?  They said that it's good.  I asked them further how they are doing with other countries, mainly international sales.  They told me -- without even complaining because they have been mistreated for so long that they have become used to it -- that it is very hard to do business with other countries because they tax our goods at such a high rate.  They said that in one case another country taxed their motorcycles at 100 percent.

    They weren't even asking for change.  But I am.

    I believe strongly in free trade but it also has to be FAIR TRADE.

    The first Republican President, Abraham Lincoln, warned that the "abandonment of the protective policy by the American Government [will] produce want and ruin among our people."

    Lincoln was right -- and it is time we heeded his words. I am not going to let America and its great companies and workers, be taken advantage of anymore.

    I am going to bring back millions of jobs.  Protecting our workers also means reforming our system of legal immigration.  The current, outdated system depresses wages for our poorest workers, and puts great pressure on taxpayers.

    Nations around the world, like Canada, Australia and many others –- have a merit-based immigration system.  It is a basic principle that those seeking to enter a country ought to be able to support themselves financially.  Yet, in America, we do not enforce this rule, straining the very public resources that our poorest citizens rely upon.  According to the National Academy of Sciences, our current immigration system costs America's taxpayers many billions of dollars a year.

    Switching away from this current system of lower-skilled immigration, and instead adopting a merit-based system, will have many benefits:  it will save countless dollars, raise workers' wages, and help struggling families –- including immigrant families –- enter the middle class.

I believe that real and positive immigration reform is possible, as long as we focus on the following goals: to improve jobs and wages for Americans, to strengthen our nation’s security, and to restore respect for our laws.

If we are guided by the well-being of American citizens then I believe Republicans and Democrats can work together to achieve an outcome that has eluded our country for decades.

    Another Republican President, Dwight D. Eisenhower, initiated the last truly great national infrastructure program –- the building of the interstate highway system.  The time has come for a new program of national rebuilding.

    America has spent approximately six trillion dollars in the Middle East, all this while our infrastructure at home is crumbling.  With this six trillion dollars we could have rebuilt our country –- twice.  And maybe even three times if we had people who had the ability to negotiate.

    To launch our national rebuilding, I will be asking the Congress to approve legislation that produces a $1 trillion investment in the infrastructure of the United States -- financed through both public and private capital –- creating millions of new jobs.

    This effort will be guided by two core principles:  Buy American, and Hire American.

     Tonight, I am also calling on this Congress to repeal and replace Obamacare with reforms that expand choice, increase access, lower costs, and at the same time, provide better Healthcare.

    Mandating every American to buy government-approved health insurance was never the right solution for America.  The way to make health insurance available to everyone is to lower the cost of health insurance, and that is what we will do.

    Obamacare premiums nationwide have increased by double and triple digits.  As an example, Arizona went up 116 percent last year alone.  Governor Matt Bevin of Kentucky just said Obamacare is failing in his State -- it is unsustainable and collapsing.

    One third of counties have only one insurer on the exchanges –- leaving many Americans with no choice at all.

    Remember when you were told that you could keep your doctor, and keep your plan?

    We now know that all of those promises have been broken.

    Obamacare is collapsing –- and we must act decisively to protect all Americans.  Action is not a choice –- it is a necessity.

    So I am calling on all Democrats and Republicans in the Congress to work with us to save Americans from this imploding Obamacare disaster.

    Here are the principles that should guide the Congress as we move to create a better healthcare system for all Americans:

    First, we should ensure that Americans with pre-existing conditions have access to coverage, and that we have a stable transition for Americans currently enrolled in the healthcare exchanges.

    Secondly, we should help Americans purchase their own coverage, through the use of tax credits and expanded Health Savings Accounts –- but it must be the plan they want, not the plan forced on them by the Government.

    Thirdly, we should give our great State Governors the resources and flexibility they need with Medicaid to make sure no one is left out.

    Fourthly, we should implement legal reforms that protect patients and doctors from unnecessary costs that drive up the price of insurance – and work to bring down the artificially high price of drugs and bring them down immediately.

    Finally, the time has come to give Americans the freedom to purchase health insurance across State lines –- creating a truly competitive national marketplace that will bring cost way down and provide far better care.

    Everything that is broken in our country can be fixed.  Every problem can be solved.  And every hurting family can find healing, and hope.

    Our citizens deserve this, and so much more –- so why not join forces to finally get it done?  On this and so many other things, Democrats and Republicans should get together and unite for the good of our country, and for the good of the American people.

    My administration wants to work with members in both parties to make childcare accessible and affordable, to help ensure new parents have paid family leave, to invest in women's health, and to promote clean air and clear water, and to rebuild our military and our infrastructure.

    True love for our people requires us to find common ground, to advance the common good, and to cooperate on behalf of every American child who deserves a brighter future.

    An incredible young woman is with us this evening who should serve as an inspiration to us all.

    Today is Rare Disease day, and joining us in the gallery is a Rare Disease Survivor, Megan Crowley.  Megan was diagnosed with Pompe Disease, a rare and serious illness, when she was 15 months old.  She was not expected to live past 5.

    On receiving this news, Megan's dad, John, fought with everything he had to save the life of his precious child.  He founded a company to look for a cure, and helped develop the drug that saved Megan's life.  Today she is 20 years old -- and a sophomore at Notre Dame.

    Megan's story is about the unbounded power of a father's love for a daughter.

    But our slow and burdensome approval process at the Food and Drug Administration keeps too many advances, like the one that saved Megan's life, from reaching those in need.

    If we slash the restraints, not just at the FDA but across our Government, then we will be blessed with far more miracles like Megan.

    In fact, our children will grow up in a Nation of miracles.

    But to achieve this future, we must enrich the mind –- and the souls –- of every American child.

    Education is the civil rights issue of our time.

    I am calling upon Members of both parties to pass an education bill that funds school choice for disadvantaged youth, including millions of African-American and Latino children.  These families should be free to choose the public, private, charter, magnet, religious or home school that is right for them.

    Joining us tonight in the gallery is a remarkable woman, Denisha Merriweather.  As a young girl, Denisha struggled in school and failed third grade twice.  But then she was able to enroll in a private center for learning, with the help of a tax credit scholarship program.  Today, she is the first in her family to graduate, not just from high school, but from college.  Later this year she will get her masters degree in social work.

    We want all children to be able to break the cycle of poverty just like Denisha.

    But to break the cycle of poverty, we must also break the cycle of violence.

    The murder rate in 2015 experienced its largest single-year increase in nearly half a century.

    In Chicago, more than 4,000 people were shot last year alone –- and the murder rate so far this year has been even higher.

    This is not acceptable in our society.

    Every American child should be able to grow up in a safe community, to attend a great school, and to have access to a high-paying job.

    But to create this future, we must work with –- not against -– the men and women of law enforcement.

    We must build bridges of cooperation and trust –- not drive the wedge of disunity and division.

    Police and sheriffs are members of our community.  They are friends and neighbors, they are mothers and fathers, sons and daughters – and they leave behind loved ones every day who worry whether or not they'll come home safe and sound.

    We must support the incredible men and women of law enforcement.

    And we must support the victims of crime.

    I have ordered the Department of Homeland Security to create an office to serve American Victims.  The office is called VOICE –- Victims Of Immigration Crime Engagement.  We are providing a voice to those who have been ignored by our media, and silenced by special interests.

    Joining us in the audience tonight are four very brave Americans whose government failed them.

    Their names are Jamiel Shaw, Susan Oliver, Jenna Oliver, and Jessica Davis.

    Jamiel's 17-year-old son was viciously murdered by an illegal immigrant gang member, who had just been released from prison.  Jamiel Shaw Jr. was an incredible young man, with unlimited potential who was getting ready to go to college where he would have excelled as a great quarterback.  But he never got the chance.  His father, who is in the audiencetonight, has become a good friend of mine.

    Also with us are Susan Oliver and Jessica Davis.  Their husbands –- Deputy Sheriff Danny Oliver and Detective Michael Davis –- were slain in the line of duty in California.  They were pillars of their community.  These brave men were viciously gunned down by an illegal immigrant with a criminal record and two prior deportations.

    Sitting with Susan is her daughter, Jenna.  Jenna:  I want you to know that your father was a hero, and that tonight you have the love of an entire country supporting you and praying for you.

    To Jamiel, Jenna, Susan and Jessica:  I want you to know –- we will never stop fighting for justice.  Your loved ones will never be forgotten, we will always honor their memory.

    Finally, to keep America Safe we must provide the men and women of the United States military with the tools they need to prevent war and –- if they must –- to fight and to win.

    I am sending the Congress a budget that rebuilds the military, eliminates the Defense sequester, and calls for one of the largest increases in national defense spending in American history.

    My budget will also increase funding for our veterans.

    Our veterans have delivered for this Nation –- and now we must deliver for them.

    The challenges we face as a Nation are great.  But our people are even greater.

    And none are greater or braver than those who fight for America in uniform.

    We are blessed to be joined tonight by Carryn Owens, the widow of a U.S. Navy Special Operator, Senior Chief William "Ryan" Owens.  Ryan died as he lived:  a warrior, and a hero –- battling against terrorism and securing our Nation.

    I just spoke to General Mattis, who reconfirmed that, and I quote, "Ryan was a part of a highly successful raid that generated large amounts of vital intelligence that will lead to many more victories in the future against our enemies."  Ryan's legacy is etched into eternity.  For as the Bible teaches us, there is no greater act of love than to lay down one's life for one's friends.  Ryan laid down his life for his friends, for his country, and for our freedom –- we will never forget him.

    To those allies who wonder what kind of friend America will be, look no further than the heroes who wear our uniform.

    Our foreign policy calls for a direct, robust and meaningful engagement with the world.  It is American leadership based on vital security interests that we share with our allies across the globe.

    We strongly support NATO, an alliance forged through the bonds of two World Wars that dethroned fascism, and a Cold War that defeated communism.

    But our partners must meet their financial obligations.

    And now, based on our very strong and frank discussions, they are beginning to do just that.

    We expect our partners, whether in NATO, in the Middle East, or the Pacific –- to take a direct and meaningful role in both strategic and military operations, and pay their fair share of the cost.

    We will respect historic institutions, but we will also respect the sovereign rights of nations.

    Free nations are the best vehicle for expressing the will of the people –- and America respects the right of all nations to chart their own path.  My job is not to represent the world.  My job is to represent the United States of America. But we know that America is better off, when there is less conflict -- not more.

    We must learn from the mistakes of the past –- we have seen the war and destruction that have raged across our world.

    The only long-term solution for these humanitarian disasters is to create the conditions where displaced persons can safely return home and begin the long process of rebuilding.

    America is willing to find new friends, and to forge new partnerships, where shared interests align.  We want harmony and stability, not war and conflict.

    We want peace, wherever peace can be found.  America is friends today with former enemies.  Some of our closest allies, decades ago, fought on the opposite side of these World Wars.  This history should give us all faith in the possibilities for a better world.

    Hopefully, the 250th year for America will see a world that is more peaceful, more just and more free.

    On our 100th anniversary, in 1876, citizens from across our Nation came to Philadelphia to celebrate America's centennial.  At that celebration, the country's builders and artists and inventors showed off their creations.

    Alexander Graham Bell displayed his telephone for the first time.

    Remington unveiled the first typewriter.  An early attempt was made at electric light.

    Thomas Edison showed an automatic telegraph and an electric pen.

    Imagine the wonders our country could know in America's 250th year.

    Think of the marvels we can achieve if we simply set free the dreams of our people.

    Cures to illnesses that have always plagued us are not too much to hope.

    American footprints on distant worlds are not too big a dream.

    Millions lifted from welfare to work is not too much to expect.

    And streets where mothers are safe from fear -- schools where children learn in peace -- and jobs where Americans prosper and grow -- are not too much to ask.

    When we have all of this, we will have made America greater than ever before. For all Americans.

    This is our vision. This is our mission.

    But we can only get there together.

    We are one people, with one destiny.

    We all bleed the same blood.

    We all salute the same flag.

    And we are all made by the same God.

    And when we fulfill this vision; when we celebrate our 250 years of glorious freedom, we will look back on tonight as when this new chapter of American Greatness began.

    The time for small thinking is over.  The time for trivial fights is behind us.

    We just need the courage to share the dreams that fill our hearts.

    The bravery to express the hopes that stir our souls.

    And the confidence to turn those hopes and dreams to action.

    From now on, America will be empowered by our aspirations, not burdened by our fears –-

    inspired by the future, not bound by the failures of the past –-

    and guided by our vision, not blinded by our doubts.

    I am asking all citizens to embrace this Renewal of the American Spirit.  I am asking all members of Congress to join me in dreaming big, and bold and daring things for our country.  And I am asking everyone watching tonight to seize this moment and --

    Believe in yourselves.

    Believe in your future.

    And believe, once more, in America.

    Thank you, God bless you, and God Bless these United States.

The Fed And The Labor Force Participation Conundrum

One of the biggest conundrums facing Janet Yellen and the Fed is whether the current unemployment rate which has been bouncing around in the high 4% range for the last few months represents the fact that the US economy is basically at "full employment'. If that is true, then a growing economy should see signs of wage inflation, prompting a faster rise in interest rates from the Fed. And there are some signs that wages are starting to rise with some regularity. If, however, we are not at full employment, then the Fed can continue to keep rates low and new jobs will be filled by the pool of workers who have given up seeking a job but may now re-enter the workforce, reducing unemployment further.

I don't really want to delve into the question of why rising worker wages could not be tolerated for an extended period, considering they really haven't budged in nearly 30 years. That would only make sense to me. I'd rather focus on the two views of the conundrum that Yellen and the Fed face. And the question largely revolves around the sustained drop in the prime age (25-64) labor force participation rate. Here is the trend for the last ten years:

As you can see, the rate has dropped from about 83.5% to nearly 80.5% over the last decade before recently recovering to 81.5%. Dean Baker points out that this is dramatically lower than projections economists made back in 2007. The current labor force participation rate for prime age men and women is nowhere near what it was expected to be, as the following two graphs show:

The current participation rate is anywhere between two and three percentage points lower than the CBO or BLS projections anticipated. Baker contends, with good reason, to believe the projections which implies that there is still plenty of slack in the workforce and that there are still plenty of people out there to fill the new jobs that are being created without a dramatic rise in wage inflation.

The other point of view is expressed in a recent report issued by Goldman Sachs, although it was comparing labor force participation in the US to other countries. The Goldman report points to three drivers of the lower labor participation rate. "First, higher rates of pain-killer use and middle-age mortality suggest that more severe health and drug-related problems have contributed to lower US participation. Second, the US incarcerates a much larger share of its population, and the challenges of finding employment faced by people with criminal records also likely contributed. Third, while exposure to trade and technology were largely similar, a weaker US policy response - namely less supportive retraining and job-search assistance - might have made the impact on participation more costly." If the labor participation rate is below expectations for these kind of reasons, then there really is not a lot of slack in the economy and inflation may start to rise more quickly.

The question for Yellen and her compatriots at the Fed, is which one of these stories to believe. The answer may well determine the direction of the economy and the failure or success of the Trump administration's economic policies.

ICE And CPB Are Abusing Citizens And Non-Citizens Alike In Hints Of Authoritarianism

Trump was supposed to roll out his new Muslim ban sometime last week but it never materialized. Now it is reported that it may come out later this week. Perhaps the delay is because the DHS review that Trump requested that would "prove" what a threat the seven blackballed countries were actually found no such thing, rather concluding that citizenship is "likely an unreliable indicator" of terrorist actions in the US. Trump rejected the study and his administration said it was incomplete.

But his ban may not need to be reintroduced since it appears that DHS, in particular the Border Patrol (CPB), seems perfectly at ease with ignoring the courts' orders to stop enforcing the ban, breaking other laws, and basically carrying on as though they were a law unto themselves.

A Jordanian was denied entry to the US with his valid tourist visa simply because his birth place was in Syria. He was a Jordanian citizen with a Jordanian passport. According to the Jordanian, he was not allowed to call his embassy, a lawyer, or his family before he was sent back to Jordan. In addition, he was threatened with a permanent ban from entering the US if he did not sign the papers agreeing to his deportation.

A British Muslim teacher from Wales traveling with a valid visa and holding a UK passport was denied entry. He was escorted off a plane in Iceland and told he would not be allowed to enter the US. This action was in direct violation of the courts' suspension of the Muslim ban.

Muhammad Ali's son, a US citizen, was detained for two hours at the Fort Lauderdale Airport on his return from Jamaica. Ali, Jr. was interrogated about his Muslim faith. According to Ali's friend and lawyer, "Imagine walking into an airport and being asked about your religion. This is classic customs profiling." But of course Trump hasn't ordered a Muslim ban.

A famed Australian children's author was detained by Border Patrol for two hours as she attempted to legally enter the country. Mem Fox felt like she had been physically assaulted in her ordeal, saying, "I have never in my life been spoken to with such insolence, treated with such disdain, with so many insults and with so much gratuitous impoliteness.". She had been to the US over 100 times without incident before this, but this may be her last visit as she now says she "couldn't imagine" coming here again.

Henry Rousso, a French researcher who has been a visiting professor at multiple US universities, was detained at a Houston airport. The professor was invited to a symposium at Texas A&M University but was held at the airport and was told he would be sent back to Paris as an illegal alien. Fortunately for Rousso, he was able get in touch with A&M who were able to intervene and allow him into the country. No explanation was given for his detention and attempted deportation. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact he is a Holocaust historian. The CPB said that the officer handling Rousso's case was "inexperienced". Rousso had the appropriate response, saying, "That is the situation today in this country. We must now face arbitrariness and incompetence at all levels...My situation was nothing compared to some of the people I saw who couldn't be defended as I was."

These abuses by the CPB will only end up hurting America in the long run. For seventy years, the best and the brightest from around the world have come to America to visit and be educated. Some decided to remain and helped drive our economy forward. The others who returned to their own countries took some American values back with them. In one month, Trump has destroyed that. As the you Jordanian said, "America was an opportunity for people here before. But now, no one is actually thinking about the United States for a future place to live."

Meanwhile, ICE is also performing its share of atrocities at the behest of the Trump administration. ICE has been accused of doctoring a the statement of a DREAMer that it detained in an immigration sweep in order to deport him as a gang member. They dragged a woman out of the hospital who was getting cancer treatment. They arrested a woman who was in court trying to get a restraining order for domestic abuse. There was the cross-country flight where passengers were not allowed to debark without showing their papers, a pretty stark reminder of authoritarian states. And now we find out that the Trump immigration executive order overrode a 2013 DHS rule that prevented the deportation of the immediate family members of active-duty servicemen and women as long as those family members did not have criminal convictions. That means that a soldier serving in, say, Iraq, Afghanistan, or perhaps even Syria, could have his family deported while he was overseas. That will be a boost for military morale.

I've just covered a sampling of what's been reported. As Mr. Rousso says, imagine what is happening to those people wo do not have the connections or resources to properly defend themselves. One of the hallmarks of authoritarian rule is the realization that the police power of the state can be used and abused in an indiscriminate manner at any time. Non-citizens and now even citizens are finding that there seems to be nothing to stop the abuses currently being wrought by ICE and the CPB.

Uber Just Can't Stay Out Of The News, For All The Wrong Reasons

Uber just keeps on rolling. They literally can barely go a day without another revelation of their illegal and unethical activity.

Late last year, Uber began testing its autonomous vehicles in both San Francisco and in Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, Uber did not have the proper license to do those tests in California and was instructed to cease by the California Department of Motor Vehicles. Uber ignored that request, of course, and carried on until the DMV revoked the test cars' registrations. But the test initially made news when one of the autonomous vehicles was captured on video running a red light. Uber initially blamed that on driver error and suspended the driver but then announced it would conduct a more thorough investigation. Now the New York Times is reporting that, in fact, it was not driver error at all and that, all told, the test vehicles ran a total of six red lights during the trial runs in San Francisco.

Then, today, RECODE reported that another engineer that Uber looked to have poached from Google's autonomous vehicle program has been forced to resign from Uber after it was revealed he was forced to leave Google due to a sexual harassment complaint. The revelation comes on the heels of an open letter from Susan Fowler of her experience with rampant sexual harassment that was tolerated not only by the management but also by the HR department. Because of that story, it would have probably been impossible for the engineer to continue at Uber. Without the Fowler letter, is there any doubt that Uber would have shoved this report under the carpet and let the engineer continue with business as usual.

But, even with all this, the serial criminal enterprise that is called Uber continues to roll on.

Reality Check - Federal Budget Literacy In Three Charts

Trump is supposed to lay out his budget priorities tonight when he addresses Congress. I anticipate that it will be short on details and more like a campaign speech, which is really the only kind of speech he is able to give.

More importantly, though, the American people are largely misinformed about the federal budget and federal spending. So, in a vain hope that Americans can be educated in this area, here it all is in three easy charts.

This is mandatory federal spending, in other words, basically entitlement spending:

Here is federal discretionary spending:

And here it all is in one chart:

There is a reason Paul Krugman calls the federal government a giant insurance company that also has a large military. Over 75% of the budget is devoted to the two giant social insurance programs, Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security, and funding for the military.

GOP Silence On Dramatic Rise In Anti-Semitism Is Truly Frightening And Shameful

Can there be any question that the Republican party is now an authoritarian white nationalist party. If the invitation of Milo Yiannopoulis and the presence of Richard Spencer (as well as Steve Bannon) at CPAC did not solidify that premise, then the deafening silence coming for all levels of the Republican party about the extraordinary wave of anti-Semitism sweeping the county should tell us all we need to know.

From the refusal to mention Jews in the Holocaust Day Memorial statement to the refusal to answer the question about what the government will do to stem the tide of anti-Semitism, instead making the question about his own professed lack of anti-Semitism, Trump has certainly shown he is unwilling to confront that element of his base and in the Republican party. The Trump administration has made its bed and will have to lie in it.

But, faced with now two massive desecrations of Jewish cemeteries and a fifth round of nationwide bomb threats against Jewish community centers, I don't believe I've heard hardly a peep of condemnation from any GOP leader. I hope I'm wrong and would love to be corrected.

I would hope any true conservatives in the Republican party (if there are any) would take a long hard look at what the GOP has become. Is passing long-dreamt of conservative legislation really worth empowering these fascistic elements in your party? And who knows when that element will turn on you?

One of the really big scalps for the Tea Party was the shocking loss of Republican Eric Cantor, the House Majority Leader, to challenger Dave Brat in the 2014 primary. Originally, this was thought to be another example of the continuing power of the Tea Party. But the election really revolved around Cantor's support for immigration reform, and you now have to wonder if Cantor's faith also played a role. In retrospect, that election seems not so much a reflection of Tea Party power, but perhaps more like the first big casualty in the takeover of the Republican party by xenophobic white nationalists.

Trump Team Floats Protectionist Policies That Will Destroy World Trade

The Trump administration is apparently considering taking steps that would destroy the international trading system as we know it today. There are really two prongs to this attack that would set off a protectionist free-for-all across the world, pretty guaranteeing another global recession.

First, head of the new National Trade Council, Peter Navarro, told the Senate Finance Committee "that the administration also wants to include a provision that would trigger a renegotiation whenever the United States runs a trade deficit with the partner country." That followed on previous suggestions that the new trade agreements would also include a provision to withdraw with just 30 days notice.

As Jordan Weissmann points out, this effectively neuters any trade deals going forward. If either side can withdraw in just 30 days, what business is going to have the confidence to work with a foreign partner or invest abroad when the terms of the deal can change almost instantly. And, what trading partner is going to agree to a trade deal where they will always have to run a trade deficit to the US or live with the uncertainty that the US will pull out in one month's time. And that's ignoring the effects that exchange rates, interest rates, and other external forces can have on the makeup of a specific trading relationship.

The Financial Times is reporting that the Trump administration is also considering ways that it can go about levelling trade sanctions on other countries without going through the World Trade Organization's (WTO) dispute resolution system. Any attempt to do this will subvert the WTO and again create another global free-for-all as other countries will respond in kind. Yes, the WTO system is sclerotic and time-consuming but it provides the kind of stability that business needs. As one official said, "The administration should focus on how to make the US economy more globally competitive, not abandoning leadership of the rules-based system we have worked for generations getting others to accept."

The Trump trade team is largely made up of outright protectionists. Trump has called the WTO a "disaster". The nominees of US Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, and Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, have both attacked the WTO as being unfair to the US and are proponents of increased protectionism. Trump and his team seem to believe that they can restore the US balance of trade back to where it was in the immediate postwar era of the 1950s and 1960s simply by fiat and that the US economy will go back to looking like it did then, with plenty of good paying jobs for non-college educated whites and a healthy trade surplus. But it was the state of the rest of the world 70 years ago that allowed the US economy to look like that. The world has changed dramatically since then, with many more dynamic and competitive economies. In the post war era, we had the dominant world economy and were in the early stages of the baby boom and our working age population was growing quickly. The Trump team seems to think we can mandate a trade surplus and everything will return to 1955. The world doesn't work that way anymore and, instead,  all these proposed policies will do is take us all back to 1935.

For Dems, Successfully Blocking ACA Repeal Means Crippling GOP Agenda

It looks like Trump and the GOP are betting the ranch on Obamacare repeal. The Wall Street Journal is reporting the Congressional GOP leaders are going to take a "now or never" approach to Obamacare repeal, essentially daring their GOP members to vote against a bill that would repeal most of the major elements of the ACA. There will be no replacement plan offered, although the bill may include a transition period and the expansion of health savings accounts. If the GOP can push through the repeal on a party line vote under a budget reconciliation that requires only 50 votes in the Senate, they will then try to pass some legislation later to build their replacement plan. But the replacement plan would require 60 votes to pass in the Senate, meaning they would have to bring along some Democratic votes, and even that assumes those bills can clear the divided House. That seems highly unlikely in the present environment. And all that assumes that health insurers don't withdraw en masse from the exchanges when they see repeal with no replacement as the GOP strategy.

It also seems like an enormously dangerous strategy for Republicans. Their members have been overwhelmed over last week's recess with constituents either demanding the ACA stay in place or that the GOP reveal a detailed replacement plan. In addition, Trump said explicitly on the campaign trail that the his replacement plan would cover everyone who now has insurance but do it for less money. His administration is now backing away from that pledge. Today, he made the extraordinary admission of ignorance that "Nobody knew that health care could be so complicated. I have to tell you, it's an unbelievably complex subject."

More importantly, Trump has signaled that tax reform is off the table until repealing the ACA can be completed. In remarks today, Trump said, “I can’t do it [tax reform] until we do health care, because we have to know what the health care is going to cost and — statutorily — that’s the way it is. So for those people who say, ‘oh, gee, I wish we could do the tax first,’ it just doesn’t work that way. I would like to do the tax first." The reality is that there is nothing stopping Trump and the GOP from tackling tax reform first. The reason that they don't has nothing to do with statutory rules. It is because the 2011 sequester agreement means that tax reform has to be revenue-neutral. The only way for the GOP to cut taxes on the rich, which is their overriding goal, is to repeal the taxes on the wealthy that are used to fund the ACA.  The tax cuts they desire will not really come from tax reform but from repealing the ACA and the taxes associated with it. In essence, repealing the ACA is the lynchpin of the entire Republican legislative strategy.

So the battle lines are clear for Democrats. If we can stop the repeal of the ACA in its tracks, we can stop much of the GOP legislative agenda. That means that the level of resistance and pressure on those GOP House members and Senators must be maintained and perhaps even intensified on the coming weeks. It is only that relentless resistance that will scare enough Republicans in Congress from pulling the plug on Obamacare when they know there is and never will be an adequate replacement plan. We should look on last week as just the beginning of the battle, an opening warning shot. If we can sway enough Republicans, the major elements of the unpopular GOP agenda will also be crippled.

Perez Is The Man To Rebuild The Democratic Party From The Ground Up

It seems like some members of the Democratic party still can't get beyond the 2016 election. Over the weekend Tom Perez just squeaked by Keith Ellison to become chairman of the Democratic National Committee. This caused some howls of protest from some of the more ideological progressives in the party, many of whom were associated with the Sanders campaign. Perez's appointment of Ellison as Deputy Chair did not seem to do much to assuage those Ellison supporters, nor did Ellison's statement on accepting that position, saying, "We don’t have the luxury to walk out of this room divided".  Martese Chism, a board member of the National Nurses United, was not appeased, saying, "The DNC voting members crushed us again like they did with Bernie. They didn’t listen to the people, they didn’t even listen to the applause in the room. They want to keep the status quo and they want the left to follow them ― I don’t know what we’re going to do", hinting at taking her and her union's activism to other progressive groups outside the party. Some others are upset that Perez did not take a firm stand against TPP or the DAPL and XL pipelines. But those battles at over, primarily because Democrats have no power to fight whatever the GOP decides to do. It really is time to move on and fight about issues we can really influence.

The feud over Perez and Ellison is bizarre in that it became a proxy for waging the Bernie-Hillary primary all over again. Ellison was a vocal supporter of Bernie and Perez endorsed Hillary. But Perez is not really from the Clinton world. He is more of Obama's guy and it was former Obama officials that pressed Perez to run and pushed for his election. But Hillary became the target of the Ellison supporter much more than Obama, who seemed to get a pass. Obama was never able to convert his personal popularity into votes for the Democratic party down the line. And Democratic losses at the state and local levels during Obama's eight years are staggering. In many ways, he has failed the institution of the Democratic party more than Hillary.

In reality, those progressives critical of Perez were objecting more to the corporate bent of the Democratic party bureaucracy that they believe he represents. That view is reflected in the statements that Sanders himself made the day after Perez's election. Said Bernie, "We need a total transformation. We need to open up the party to working people, to young people and make it crystal clear that the Democratic Party is going to take on Wall Street, it’s going to take on the greed of the pharmaceutical industry, it’s going to take on corporate America that is shutting down plants in this country and moving our jobs abroad."

But Perez's progressive credentials are, in many ways, as good or better than Ellison's. His political career began as an upstart progressive beating the mainstream Democratic incumbent on the Montgomery County Council in Maryland. Rising to become council president in three years, he fought for legislation to protect the fights of day laborers, to protect minority communities from predatory lenders and to allow drug purchases from Canada. The latter two measures were passed by the Council and then subsequently blocked by the Bush administration. He was then appointed by Obama to head the Civil Rights division at the Department of Justice. That group had been decimated by George Bush and Karl Rove, who had ousted prosecutors for their political beliefs and tried to force them to bring voter fraud cases that didn't exist. He rebuilt that office quickly, focusing an abuses by police departments across the country and eventually took on the blatant discrimination in the racist Shrriff Joe Arpaio's police department. Obama moved him to head the Department of Labor in 2013. He was responsible for pushing through the rules that allowed home care and domestic workers to be covered by federal minimum wage and overtime rules. He spoke forcefully for the fight for $15. He was aggressive in going after wage theft and misclassification of workers to avoid overtime rules. He promulgated the rule that investment advisers put the interest of their clients first, the so-called fiduciary rule. This was a clear attack on the interests of Wall Street but Perez was able to push it through. The law repealing this rule was one of the first acts of the GOP Congress and President Trump. Perez also oversaw the first upgrade to the overtime rule in years and had it indexed to inflation. It would have lifted the salary of millions of workers. An activist conservative judge in Texas who was handpicked by the rules opponents struck down the rule, breaking all precedent that gave the DOL authority to do this, and the Trump administration will not appeal that decision.

That is a pretty progressive resume for Perez. More importantly, however, is that Perez has shown he is a skilled bureaucrat as much as being a politician. And the DNC needs a bureaucrat to help rebuild the party at the state and local level. This should be right in Perez's wheelhouse. I think most Democratic party regulars see that the party faithful are far ahead of the institution itself. Any rational leader will see that the DNC should be focusing most of their support to the state and local parties so that can capture and build on the wave of engagement that currently exists and begin to compete again locally across the country. Perez's history certainly indicates that he would see that quite clearly. And he may just be the kind of bureaucrat to do that job successfully.

I endorsed Tom Perez for Vice President and I think that a reasonable case could be made that his efforts at the DOL might have been able to hold just enough white working class voters to overcome James Comey's election coup. I also endorsed him for DNC chair for not only for the reasons I've listed above but also because Democrats do not need to waste resources trying to hold the open seat now held by Ellison in 2018. The map is not favorable for Senate Democrats who are defending many red state seats. Our only hope to regain any kind of power in Washington is to win the House, riding the energized Democratic base and independents turned off by the incompetence and downright meanness of the Trump administration.

Thankfully, Democrats won the special election in Delaware over the weekend and held the state Senate. Imagine the chaos and infighting that we would have had if the Democrats had lost and we still had no DNC chair. So, Perez dodged a bullet on day one. And hopefully he can dodge a few more as he takes on the enormous task of rebuilding the institutional Democratic party across the country and capitalizing on the wave of engagement in the party's base.

Natural Weekends - Clouds And Light

With Intelligence Committees Compromised, Russia Investigation Must Move To Special Prosecutor

I'm guessing that last night's story that the White House not only pressured the FBI but also other intelligence agencies and the heads of the House and Senate Intelligence committees to push back on the story about the connections between the Russians and the Trump campaign has even most Republicans in Congress convinced that the investigation must be moved to an independent prosecutor or commission now.

The inappropriateness of what Priebus and the White House engaged in by pressuring other intelligence groups to refute the Russia connection story is staggering. I think the Iraq debacle should have taught us all the stupidity of trying to tell the intelligence agencies what they must find and say. While the FBI may have told Priebus that they believed the Times story was overblown, they refused to say so publicly. Did Priebus use the FBI as a source when he went to the other intelligence agencies and the Intelligence Committee heads? Did those agencies and individuals simply take Priebus at his word before they went and pushed back on the story to the press? Those questions are just a start.

The GOP heads of the House and Senate Intelligence Committees, Nunes and Burr, are now completely compromised, have both repeated what Priebus wanted them to say to the press. As Jim Himes, who is a member of the House Intelligence Committee said, there is nothing that his committee has seen that could allow any member of the committee to make a determination one way or the other about the extent of the Russian connections.

Already, some vulnerable Republicans see the handwriting on the wall. Darrell Issa called for a special prosecutor or commission last night. Lindsey Graham has already called for a special congressional committee. I expect McCain to join them on a Sunday show tomorrow.

The remaining question is will McConnell give in or still try to hold the line as the story makes it harder to move the GOP agenda forward. More importantly, will Trump allow it. Based on his overreaction to just the Times story, that seems unlikely. If so, the break between the GOP in Congress and Trump may come much sooner than we think.

GOP Attacks On Press And Protest Are Driven By Fear And Weakness, Not Strength

The Trump administration's unprecedented action in blocking a number of prominent news organizations from an off-camera press briefing has created understandable outrage. It is a blatant attack on the freedom of the press and shows no regard or understanding of our Constitution, not an unusual occurrence among Republicans these days. In fact, suppressing a free press and free speech has become a staple for Republicans around the country.

Besides the bill in Arizona that I  linked to above, Martin Longman runs down the list of GOP bills in the states that are purely designed to stifle dissent. "A Florida Republican introduced a bill that would make it easier to run over protesters with your car without being legally liable. North Dakota and Tennessee Republicans have done the same. In Minnesota, Republicans are pushing a bill that would allow the police to charge protesters for the cost of policing their rallies and marches. Not to be outdone, Mississippi Republicans want to make blocking traffic a crime punishable by a $10,000 fine and five years in prison. There are also a bunch of bills coming out of states like South Dakota, Colorado, and Oklahoma aimed at greatly stiffening penalties for interfering in the operation of pipelines. So far, none of these bills have become law, and most of them are unconstitutional. But they indicate a certain mood."

In yet another example, aTrump adviser in the White House decided to call one of his critics in the media at home and berate him for his criticism. Sebastian Gorka, a White House terrorism advisor, used his personal cell phone to contact his critic and threaten to sue him. Gorka has long been a fringe figure who was never considered a terrorism expert and has been associated with anti-Semitic groups in Hungary.

All of this is frightening for our democracy just on the face of it. Trump's banning certain elements of the mainstream media is indicative of "dictatorships" and that's quoting Sean Spicer from just to months ago. And the repression of free speech and free assembly fits in that category as well. These are blatant attacks on our democracy, which, sadly, have been a hallmark of the Republican party for the last quarter century. When people and parties had real respect for the Constitution, they would never put forward or pass a bill that was knowingly unconstitutional. But the GOP in particular has made it a habit for decades to pull these kind of stunts simply to signal and trigger their base. In reality, it debases our democracy.

But it is also important to understand that this current crackdown on the press and free speech is borne out of weakness and, even more so, by fear. Certainly Trump's fear of an aggressive press is based on his own vulnerability. Hidden behind all of the Trump administration's attempts to discredit the Russian story and the attacks on the media is the plain fact that the administration has NEVER issued a blanket denial of the charge that there were ongoing contacts between the Trump campaign and Russia during the election.

And hidden behind the GOP legislatures' attacks on free speech and free assembly is the fear and realization that they are truly a minority party and demographics make clear their minority status will only get worse. They currently hold the levers of power due the structure of our democracy, extreme gerrymandering, voter suppression, and the failure of the Democratic party at the state and local level. For the nation as a whole, they are a clear minority. In any other country that calls itself a democracy, the party that won 3 million more votes in an election would wield at least some significant power. (Which makes you wonder what kind of democracy we really have left in this country.) But the important point is that, while the GOP may have substantial political power right now, most of their actions are driven by the weakness of their position, the fear that generates, and the knowledge that most of the country does not agree with their policies. And that is a point of attack for Democrats. Why are Republicans so afraid of the press and protests? Trump and the GOP love to protect this image of strength. But, as the Chinese and others have found out, when confronted they really are paper tigers. And Democrats' relentless resistance will make that clear to all.

Serial Corporate Criminal Uber Accused Of Stealing Google Technology

Another day, another potential act of criminality by Uber. Waymo, the spinoff from Google focused on autonomous vehicles, has sued Uber for stealing its technology.

The case mostly revolves around a former Google employee, Ron Levandowski, who led Google's autonomous vehicle effort. Levandowski was a pioneer in autonomous driving vehicles and Google had purchased his start-up company to help get its own program off the ground. Levandowski left Google in 2016 to form a competitor company called Otto. When he left, he also took some other Google engineers and, according to the suit, thousands of documents that included lists of suppliers and engineering and manufacturing details.

By remarkable coincidence, a mere seven months later, shortly after Levandowski received his last multimillion dollar payout from Google, Uber bought Otto in an apparent attempt to get its own autonomous vehicle program on track. With Otto came all those stolen documents as well. Google, now Waymo, was apparently alerted to the theft when a supplier inadvertently copied the company on an email detailing the circuit board behind Uber's light detection and ranging technology. The circuitry had "a striking resemblance" to the Waymo's patented technology.

The suit specifically charges "Otto and Uber have taken Waymo’s intellectual property so that they could avoid incurring the risk, time, and expense of independently developing their own technology. Ultimately, this calculated theft reportedly netted Otto employees over half a billion dollars and allowed Uber to revive a stalled program, all at Waymo’s expense."

Just another day for Uber who is still reeling from the accusation of a former employee about rampant sexual harassment at the company and the complete breakdown and failure of the HR department to actually do its job rather than protecting the predators. The obvious question that hangs out there is whether Uber "poached" Levandowski and the Google trade secrets and Otto was just a temporary placeholder so Levandowski could get his full Google payout. Based on Uber's history, I'm certainly inclined to believe that's what happened. And it leads one to wonder, is there anything this serial criminal enterprise will not do?

Natural Weekends - Big Skies (Not Montana)

White House Pressuring FBI Raises More Questions For Both Of Them

I'm not the first person to make this point but it's a point worth repeating. CNN has reported that the White House, specifically Reince Priebus, asked or perhaps pressured the FBI to publicly refute the reports from the New York Times, CNN, and other sources that the members of the Trump campaign were in frequent contact with the Russians during the 2016 election.

The CNN story says that a conversation between Priebus and FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe began as an aside to a separate White House meeting. McCabe is reported not to have discussed the details of the FBI's Russian investigation but it is not clear exactly what discussed. At some point later, Priebus reached out to McCabe and to (the infamous) FBI Director James Comey to ask them to either publicly or on background refute the details in the Times and elsewhere about the contacts between the Trump campaign and the Russians during the election. Comey refused Priebus' request because Trump's Russian ties are under investigation. Let the irony of that sink in for a minute. The contact by Priebus appears to violate DOJ procedural memos that restrict the communications between the White House and the FBI regarding ongoing investigations.

The Trump administration initially disputed this report, saying that Priebus was called earlier in the morning by McCabe who indicated that those stories overstated what the FBI believed to be true. Of course, this was a lie and the White House had to walk this back a short time later. The present story out of the White House is that McCabe initiated the conversation indicating that reports were inaccurate at the White House meeting. Armed with that knowledge, Priebus merely asked the FBI to correct the record either publicly or off the record with reporters. There was no attempt to "pressure" the FBI to make a statement. And, since the discussions only concerned public news stories and not the investigation itself, there was no violation of those DOJ procedures. That seems like just semantics to me.

Whether you believe the White House or not, this does not look good for either the White House or the FBI. If you believe the White House version, the question becomes what was the Deputy Director of the FBI doing discussing an ongoing investigation with Priebus. And, regardless of whether you believe CNN or the White House, Priebus was clearly pressuring the FBI to release a statement about an ongoing investigation, which comes perilously close to an obstruction of justice.

Considering the FBI's remarkable interference in the last election, both of the above options reflect badly on the FBI and the Trump team. If the FBI is briefing the White House on its investigation of Trump advisers, it would be just another example of the FBI colluding with the Trump team. If Priebus felt free to pressure the FBI to deny the story, it indicates that someone in the White House was quite comfortable in asking the FBI to put out a statement that exonerated the Trump team. That certainly sounds quite similar to what happened when the FBI put out a statement right before the election that the agency had no indications that there were contacts between the Russians and the Trump campaign. That statement, we know now, was false.

Either way, this just adds to the smoke that surrounds the FBI, the Trump team, and connections to Russia. And today's press briefing that excluded news outlets that have reported on those Russian connections just fans those glowing embers creating that smoke further.

The Jekyll And Hyde Administration

The Trump administration seems to be two distinct administrations in one. And they each have two different titular heads. There is the one headed by Mike Pence that is a traditional, though extreme, mainstream conservative administration. It talks about empowering Americans by rolling back regulations, providing tax cuts for the wealthy, and getting our fiscal house in order by cutting entitlements. And then there is the one headed by Trump and Bannon that probably agrees with Pence on those issues but is more interested on cracking down on immigrants and Muslims, ripping up our trade deals, backing out of our alliances, and rebuilding a new world order. It is truly schizophrenic, a Jekyll and Hyde administration, with Jekyll just slightly less evil than Hyde.

This being politics, logical consistency is not necessary and often difficult to find, but most politicians at least try to keep up the pretense of having it. And when you have two different administrations, the logical inconsistencies sometimes become quite stark and stunning. Erik Loomis lays out one brief episode in Sean Spicer's press conference yesterday. Spicer first commented on the DOJ ruling on transgender public school students being blocked from using facilities that match their gender identity. (The GOP obsession with bathrooms is really quite striking.) Spicer described the decision saying, "It’s a states’ right issue. And that’s entirely what he [Trump] believes, that if a state wants to pass a law or rule or an organization wants to do something in compliance with the state law, that’s their right, but it shouldn’t be the federal government getting in the way of this." It's interesting to note the focus on the state law, of course, because the state law in North Carolina that triggered this whole issue was to override an ordinance in the city of Charlotte that let transgender students use the facilities of their gender identity. Just minutes later, in a remarkable about face, Spicer then laid out the prospect of tighter enforcement of federal marijuana laws. Said Spicer, "I do believe that you’ll see greater enforcement", but the policy would be “a question for the Department of Justice." In other words, the rights of states like Colorado and Washington that have legalized marijuana don't matter, federal law prevails. It is rare that you see such stark situational ethics, even in politics.

Steve Mnuchin used a similar tactic in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. As Kevin Drum points out, he managed to blame Obama for a slow growth economy while at the same time saying the US economy was outperforming the rest of the world. It was a pretty neat trick. According to the Journal, "Mnuchin said slower economic growth since the financial crisis had primarily been an anomaly and a result of Obama administration policies that can be reversed",  and then quoted Mnuchin directly, "We think it’s critical that we get back to more normalized economic growth. More normalized economic growth is 3% or higher." Later in the interview, Mnuchin was asked about the strength of the US dollar. His reply, "I think the strength of the dollar has a lot to do with kind of where our economy is relative to the rest of the world, and that the dollar continues to be the leading currency in the world, the leading reserve currency and a reflection of the confidence that people have in the U.S. economy." So which one is it, Steve - a slow economy due to Obama or the strength of our economy compared to the rest of the world and one that people have confidence in, again due to Obama? I'm sure he would sit there with a straight face and say both are true at the same time.

But it is not just individual Trump advisers who end up have to contradict themselves within a few sentences. Most of the time, those advisers are sent out to "interpret" what exactly the White House is saying, kind of like sweeping up after the circus parade. Most of the time this involves sending out the Pence administration to calm nerves about what the Trump administration has done. Gary Cohn, Trump's chief economic adviser, had to perform that job today. Cohn is a member of the Pence administration who has somehow managed to catch the President's ear and is now tasked with leading Trump by the nose into the Pence camp. Today, he had to go reassure business leaders that the border adjustment tax floated by the brilliant mind of Paul Ryan and House Republicans was not supported by the White House. This tax has the potential to devastate companies that rely on imports and yesterday Trump had indicated some support for the idea. Cohn performed another part of his job a few weeks ago when he managed to convince Trump that his "huge" infrastructure plan would not work because it would either have to rely on private partners or would explode the deficit. That was all apparently news to the oblivious Trump and now the infrastructure plan has been put off until 2018 when the GOP hopes it can be used as a political weapon. Of course, the Pence administration has no interest in an infrastructure plan because that would mean spending money.

Where the dichotomy in administrations really becomes dangerous is in the arena of foreign policy. And here the messages of the two administrations are in direct conflict. That certainly does not inspire confidence among our allies. Pence, Mattis, and Tillerson, essentially the foreign policy team of the Pence administration, were in Europe last week, trying to calm our allies down about Trump/Bannon's threat to substantially weaken NATO and the European Union. But, just days before Pence and company left for Europe, Bannon again reiterated his desire to see the EU break apart while speaking to the German Ambassador. According to CNN, "Bannon told Peter Witting, the German ambassador to the US, that the Trump administration wants to strengthen bilateral ties with individual European countries rather than deal with the entire bloc, the sources said. In what was described as a 'combative' conversation, the sources said Bannon spelled out a nationalist world view and cited a wave of anti-EU populism as evidence of the bloc's flaws." The NY Times today has an article describing the similar problem that Mexico is having trying to determine what exactly is the policy of the US. The headline alone tells the story, "As Kelly and Tillerson Visit Mexico, Their Reassurances Differ From Trump’s Stance".

When push comes to shove, these foreign governments are more likely to believe the words of the Trump/Bannon administration rather than the Pence administration, because, after all, that is where the power really lies. And the potential blowback for the US could be powerful. If the US does abandon NATO, it would probably pull the remaining Western Alliance nations even closer together as they fear Putin and Russia trying to extend their influence back into Europe. The US would lose important allies in the whatever military adventures Trump/Bannon would want to engage in. It would extend the influence of China as the EU would look to that country as an important trading partner in order to "replace" the US, whom the EU could no longer trust.

Mexico actually presents even more challenges. We need their cooperation on immigration and the drug trade and the country is a critical component in the supply chains of many US companies. As the Times article points out, Mexico is an enormous purchaser of US agricultural products. The country is "the No. 1 purchaser of American corn, dairy, pork and rice. Mexico purchased nearly $2 billion of corn in 2016 and also bought large amounts of soybeans, wheat, cotton and beef. A Mexican lawmaker recently proposed a bill to redirect purchases of corn away from the United States, a tactic that could devastate American corn farmers in the heartland of Mr. Trump’s base. Both Brazil and Argentina offer alternatives to the American Corn Belt, experts and officials say." If Mexico decides that the US relationship is that unstable and unfriendly, they are in a position to devastate the agriculture industry in the US. As the Mexican lawmaker's bill indicates, the Mexican public is already pressuring the Mexican government to take a stronger stand against the Trump/Bannon's economic nationalism. The Pence administration, on the other hand, has no interest in pursuing these battles.

There is a reason that Lawrence O'Donnell calls Pence the greatest threat to Donald Trump. Pence is the guy that the GOP Congress would find far easier to work with than Trump. Pence is the guy whose interests align almost seamlessly with the Republicans in Congress. Pence will not create these needless missteps and distractions that only end up delaying the GOP Congress from the tax cuts and regulation rollbacks it is really interested in. But Trump still holds enough power over the rank and file Republican voters and that is what keeps the Trump/Bannon administration in place. The GOP Congress is not yet ready to confront Trump. The Pence administration will, of course, do its best to convert Trump over to its views and they may very well succeed. But if they can't, it won't be long before Republicans in Congress decide to get rid of Mr. Hyde and give all the power to Dr. Jekyll.