Bureaucracy, Courts Show Signs Of Reining In Trump

It's beginning to look like the bureaucracy is finally starting to rein in Donald Trump. He is already backing away from some of his more extreme positions or at least putting them on hold. And his press conference with Prime Minister Abe today showed Trump clearly hewing to the script and not going off on the wild and destructive tangents he is famous for. There was no declaration that Japan was getting a free ride on its defense and must pay us back. In fact, Trump committed to longstanding US policies with Japan. Part of this may be that someone is finally explaining to Trump just how dangerous what was fiery campaign rhetoric in the past is when it is repeated as President.

First, in a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump apparently reaffirmed the US commitment to the "one China" policy that has been US policy for decades. This is a total repudiation of Trump's earlier comments that he did not feel bound by that policy and his breech of protocol in contacting the Taiwanese leader before speaking to Xi. In addition, Trump again insulted the Chinese by not sending good wishes on the Lunar New Year, although he did send a belated message on Wednesday. It is unclear whether an affirmation of the "one China" policy was a condition of the long awaited call between Trump and Xi.

Just days after renewing his campaign promise to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem, Trump himself backed off that promise in an interview with the Christian Broadcasting Network. Said Trump, "It’s a big, big decision but we’re studying the issue right now; I’ve always liked the concept of doing it, I will tell you that, and I’ll have a decision in the not-too-distant future". As we've seen with so many of Trump's promises, a pledge to do something in the future is often soon forgotten.

The courts have played their part in restraining Trump as they unanimously agreed to a temporary suspension of the Muslim ban over the unconstitutionality of certain provisions. It now appears that Trump has now decided not to carry the fight over the ban to the Supreme Court and will now set about rewriting the order in order to hopefully comply with the constitutional issues the courts have raised. Of course, this all could have been avoided by thoroughly vetting the order and laying the groundwork for it before it was announced.

So, there appear to be a few signs that some degree of normalcy is finally taking hold in the Trump administration. But it is clear that Trump can still go off the rails if he is not managed correctly. During a call with the French President Francois Hollande, Trump apparently went ballistic over NATO, telling Hollande "we want our money back". A senior official who had knowledge of the call described Trump as follows, "He speaks with slogans, and the conversation was not completely organised." On the other hand, Trump still reaffirmed the US commitment to NATO even in this call.

There will still be the outrageous lies, total fabrications, and outright ignorance such as the statements about the US murder rate and illegals voting. And there will still be overreach such as ICE officers such as taking into custody people who simply could not provide documentation and were in the vicinity of the deportation raids, something that I would hope has to be a constitutional violation. But the important takeaway is one that everyone from ISIS to Xi has learned - Trump is weak and will retreat under pressure. That is why relentless resistance is so crucial. As a lawyer described Trump's cave-in to the "one China" policy said, "Trump just confirmed to the world that he is a paper tiger, a 'zhilaohu' — someone that seems threatening but is wholly ineffectual and unable to stomach a challenge." So challenge him we must.

None of this means that the Trump administration is going to be any less disastrous. In fact, by reining Trump in, it will mean that Trump's terrible policies will be put in place through the normal legislative and bureaucratic procedures, potentially without Trump's inflammatory statements to rouse opposition. As his cabinet gets ensconced, we will probably begin to see more effective and coordinated implementation of his destructive policies. I suspect we will see less and less of Trump as Congress passes and he signs terrible and damaging legislation over united Democratic opposition. And in six months, we will start to read stories about how Trump is "growing into the job of being President". I'm sick already.