Certainly, the Turks have their own agenda here and it would be foolish take everything they say at face value. But if the rumored tapes that are in the Turks' possession have been passed on to the media already, even that pathetic fall-guy defense will be nearly impossible to pull off. It's clear that this was an assassination from the moment Khashoggi walked in the consulate. The defense was made even more difficult by other reports that identify at least four of the suspects identified by Turkey as having close connections to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), and a fifth holds a senior position in the Saudi Interior Ministry and would presumably only have acted on orders from above.
Trump claims that he doesn't want Khashoggi's murder to jeopardize the Saudi's agreement to buy $110 billion of US arms. But that $110 billion deal is just the usual Trump total fiction. In fact, the Saudis have only come close to committing to buy around $15 billion worth of arms and that deal has not even been closed. And Trump's rogue element defense is now implausible because of the presence of MBS' cronies and a two senior Saudi officials.
The more realistic reason why Trump is determined to defend and protect the Saudis revolves around the personal financial interests of both Kushner and Trump with that government. Trump has certainly relied on Saudi money to buy apartments in his buildings and even bail out his now struggling hotels. And MBS has reportedly bragged that he had Kushner "in his pocket". In fact, Kushner's close relationship with MBS concerned government officials early on. According to CNN, "Senior administration officials said Kushner's close relationship with bin Salman was an early cause for concern among career national security staffers, who worried off-the-books conversations with the young prince could lead to misunderstandings or worse".
But even that hardly explains the Saudis ham-handed and seemingly inept response to the murder. The initial response, which they still haven't officially repudiated, was totally implausible, namely that Khashoggi left the embassy and they have no idea what happened to him. It is hard to believe that the Saudis haven't yet come up with a more plausible theory. They could have said he died of a heart attack in the embassy. They could have said it was rendition gone bad. But no, their attitude from the beginning seems to be "yes, we killed him and what are you going to do about it". The details leaked by the Turks certainly support that conclusion. The execution team was waiting for Khashoggi when he arrived and he was executed in front of a top Saudi diplomat.
What's equally hard to understand is that MBS is very attuned to his image as a reformer in the US. He spent millions cultivating that image and it seems hard to believe he would throw that all away over some pesky dissident reporter. In addition, the Saudis rely on US arms and intelligence to pursue their criminal war in Yemen. Again, why would MBS risk losing that support over some exiled dissident. He also had to know that killing Khashoggi, maybe not a US citizen but considered a US person under law, as well as being a Washington Post contributor, was bound to create problems.
One theory that explains MBS' actions and his response to the killing is that he believes that he has so much leverage over Trump that he can do whatever he wants. Sending his security detail and even calling in outside cleaners to come to embassy right before the Turks searched it indicate the impunity with which the Saudis approached this.
Another theory, which certainly has less supporting evidence, is that MBS believes that he had a sign off from Kushner and/or Trump to go ahead with this killing. That would certainly explain Trump's desperation to provide cover for MBS as well as MBS' willingness to seemingly let Trump twist in the wind on this issue. The fact that US intelligence had prior knowledge about a Saudi attempt to detain Khashoggi yet the US government did not tell the Saudis to stand down on this plan adds some possible credence to this theory. In addition, the fact that the target was a Washington Post reporter who was not a US citizen certainly fits in with Trump's anti-press rhetoric.
Assuming that theory is true, and that is certainly a big if, then it is also possible that Turkey may have also intercepted Saudi communications that confirmed the US gave the go-ahead for Khashoggi's killing. If so, Trump could be being blackmailed by both the Saudis and the Turks. As with Saudi Arabia, Trump has financial interests in Turkey which further clouds the situation. Certainly, the fact that the Turks have leaked details that contradict every cover story that Trump tries to float for the Saudis indicate that they too are interested in squeezing Trump.
Admittedly, the evidence for these theories is flimsy at best and, as noted above, we are largely relying on details provided by the Turks who have their own agenda with regards to Saudi Arabia and Middle East politics in general. But the theory that Trump and/or Kushner actually signed off on the Khashoggi killing explains everyone's actions as well as any other theory we have seen yet.
UPDATE: Here are three other additional pieces of information that can be construed as supporting this hypothesis. First, Kushner has reportedly previously turned over information on Saudi dissidents that he learned from classified briefings to MBS. Second, Nikki Haley's shock resignation was actually submitted just hours after Khashoggi's death was reported and long before Trump's kowtowing began, possibly indicating she also knew of the Saudi's plan before it occurred. Lastly, it appears that, even today, Kushner believes that this incident will just blow over, again indicating he would not have thought that giving the OK for Khashoggi's murder, a US resident and Washington Post contributor, would be any big deal.
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