Thoughts On The Manafort Plea Deal

In the end, Paul Manafort held out as long as was reasonably possible. It made sense to at least see what the outcome of the first trial in Virginia would be. The eight felony convictions were bad enough but what was probably more disturbing to Manafort and his team is that he avoided conviction on the other ten counts simply because of a single juror.

With his money running out and the certainty that he would spend the rest of his life in jail, Manafort's only real remaining option was to cooperate with Mueller and hope he can get some kind of reduced sentence that may allow him to spend at least part of his later life as a free man.

It must have also been apparent to Manafort that a Trump pardon would really do him no good, especially after his convictions in Virginia. Those convictions opened him up to significant state charges and, based on the superseding information presented by Mueller's team today, it is clear that there were a whole host of other state charges that could easily be brought.

In addition, the Virginia convictions and the joint defense agreement that Manafort had with Trump would make the pardon essentially another act of obstruction of justice which Manafort must feel that Trump would not risk, besides doing him no real good.

Rather than increase the chances of a Manafort pardon, today's developments, which also includes the revelation that Michael Cohen is also talking to Mueller, will probably increase the chances of Trump shutting down the Mueller investigation after the midterms. That will be the case whatever the results of those elections. If Republicans hold the House and the Senate, Trump will take that as an indication that he is untouchable and end the investigation. If Democrats win the House, Trump will claim that he must end the Democratic witch hunt before it tears the country apart and end the investigation, knowing full well the lame duck Congress will not act. Either way, my guess is that Sessions, Rosenstein, and Mueller are gone after the midterms.

Of course, Trump is the one with the most to fear from Manafort. Mueller wouldn't have accepted the plea deal unless Manafort provided something of real value in his proffer. But don't forget that Manafort was instrumental in making sure Mike Pence was chosen as Vice President. Was that merely to shore up the evangelical base or were there other more nefarious reasons? In addition, although Manafort officially left the campaign in August, he still remained involved in the campaign and transition and may have information about what exactly went on between Pence, Flynn, and Kushner and the backchannels to Russia.

Manafort's cooperation agreement may be the key to unlocking the extent of the Trump campaign conspiracy with the Russians during and after the campaign. Unfortunately, this also increases the chances of an epic constitutional confrontation in the very near future.